Palm oil exports disappoint, and the start of 2026 is a weak one for palm oil. Production will be the focus.

Malaysian palm futures declined and recorded a weekly 'drop' on Friday, the first trading session in '2026. Traders digested slow export data from cargo surveyors, and awaited production figures for December to provide further guidance. The benchmark March palm oil contract on the Bursa Derivatives exchange fell 1.48% at closing to 3,990 Ringgit ($984.70). The price fell by 2.42% in a week. Malaysian palm oil product exports in December fell between 5.2% to 5.8% on a month-on-month basis, according to reports released by cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services & inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia.

Anilkumar Bagani is the head of commodity research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group. He said that the full-month Malaysian Palm?oil export had declined by more than 5 percent, contrary to market expectations for a solid increase from the low base in November.

Bagani said that palm futures also declined following the sell-off of Chicago soyoil on Wednesday. He added that he was waiting for the full-month estimates of?Malaysian Palm Oil production.

Geopolitical uncertainty and tariff worries caused prices to fall nearly 9% by 2025. According to a Trade Ministry order, Indonesia set its crude palm?price reference at $915.64 a ton in January, a decrease from December's $926.14.

Palm oil could?break the support at 4,044 Ringgit per ton and fall to a range of 3,964 to 4,008 Ringgit.

(source: Reuters)