Oil shock resilience in march - or just smoke and mirrors? Mike Dolan
The energy shock caused by the Iran war is unprecedented. So far, the real economy has been hit hard. The fact that the only immediate information available is market sentiment, pricing or anecdotes makes it difficult to invest in a sudden crisis such as the Middle East conflict. When reliable data about the economic impact of a crisis finally appears, the crisis has often already passed. The most immediate shock was in the energy markets and prices.
Russell: The war between Iran and the ROI is both a boon and a danger to Australia's LNG.
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran changed the global market of?liquefied gas (LNG), giving a boost to the producers outside the Middle East. This boost will likely last for many years after the conflict ends. Australia is one of the biggest beneficiaries, having last year dropped to third place in the world for super-chilled fuel exports behind the United States of America and Qatar.
Russell: The war between Iran and the ROI is both a boon and a danger to Australia's LNG.
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran changed the global market of liquefied gas (LNG), giving a boost to producers outside the Middle East. This boost will likely last for many years after the conflict is over. Australia is one of the biggest beneficiaries, having slipped last year to third place in the world's exports of super-chilled gasoline behind the United States of America and Qatar.
Sources say that Addison is retiring as the architect of the US-Venezuela trade deal.
John Addison is Vitol’s top U.S. gas trader. He helped his firm secure a deal this year for the first Venezuelan oil exports following Nicolas Maduro’s capture by U.S. troops. Four sources said on Tuesday that Addison plans to retire from the world’s largest commodities trading house at the age of 47. Addison has been a successful gas trader for decades, according to rivals and colleagues.
Mike Dolan: The US Treasury's seismograph is twitching after the Iran oil shock.
The Iran oil crisis has thrown rate forecasts into disarray and caused turbulence in the U.S. Treasury market - pushing?volatility up to its highest level in almost a year, and forcing sales that are taking a heavy toll on liquidity. The danger is that these tremors will spread. The sheer size of the U.S. Treasury market is one of its main attractions. The $30 trillion…
Mike Dolan: The ROI-Gulf War rattles the petrodollar Foundations
No matter what the outcome of this war is, the question for the Gulf's oil-rich economies will remain: "Is the U.S. umbrella worth the cost?" Since U.S., Israel and other countries launched attacks on Iran, on February 28, the Gulf's neighbours have been the most affected by the missiles and drones which followed. These weapons destroyed energy infrastructure and damaged economies. They also exposed the limits of a supposed U.S. umbrella.
Russell: The war fuel crisis in Iran gives electric vehicles a boost for the long term.
The U.S. president Donald Trump is known for his support of fossil fuels. However, the war on Iran will likely result in an acceleration of energy transitions, particularly in Asia. Retail fuel prices have risen rapidly in the world's fastest-growing and most populous region since the U.S.-Israeli aerial campaign against Iran began on February 28. In Australia, for example…
Russell: The war fuel crisis in Iran gives electric vehicles a boost for the long term.
The U.S. president Donald Trump is known for his support of fossil fuels. However, the legacy of war against the?Iran will likely be an acceleration in the energy transition. This is especially true in Asia. Retail fuel prices have risen rapidly since the U.S.-Israeli aerial campaign began on February 28, causing the world's fastest growing region to be hit by the fallout.
Andy Home: Every missile fired against Iran burns through US tungsten stock
Israel and the U.S. have used thousands munitions in their air campaign to combat Iran. The majority, if they don't all, of these munitions contain tungsten, which is a super-hard material that allows missiles to penetrate armour and underground bunkers. The tungsten in munitions, unlike a tungsten-carbide drill bit that can be recycled is destroyed by detonation. It is gone forever.
Andy Home: Every missile fired against Iran burns through US tungsten stock
Israel and the U.S. have used thousands of munition in their air campaign to combat Iran. The majority, if not all, of these munitions contain tungsten, which is a super-hard material that allows missiles penetrate armour and underground bunkers. The tungsten in munitions, unlike a tungsten-carbide drill bit that can be recycled is destroyed by detonation. It's gone forever.
Russell: The war in Iran has a greater impact on refined fuels than crude oil and importers must act.
Media attention is focused on the loss of up to 20% of crude oil and refined fuels due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The rapid tightening in the markets for refined products in Asia is a greater concern. Major importing countries like Australia and Indonesia could be facing an "emergency" situation with lower supplies and much higher prices. According to Kpler commodity analysts…
Mike Dolan: ECB hawks want a rematch in 2021/22 after the Iran oil shock
Hawks at the European Central Bank are eager to change history. The energy price shock this month may not be as severe as the fallout of Russia's invasion in Ukraine, but officials seem to be wary of repeating their'slow' post-pandemic tightening policy that left them scrambling back in 2022. There will be intense debate in the ECB Governing Council about how and when to react to this potential inflationary spike in oil and gas prices.
Russell: Quality is important as coal prices rise amid LNG spikes on Iran War
The rise in spot prices of liquefied gas (LNG), but only in higher-quality grades, has led to a price increase for seaborne thermal coal. Last week, the spot price of LNG in Asia nearly doubled as the market digested a loss of almost 20% of global supply of super-chilled fuel after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This cut off Qatar's LNG.
Russell: China imports most energy but has the best position on Iran
China is the largest energy importer in the world and would appear to be vulnerable to the rise in crude oil and gas prices caused by the conflict between Israel, the United States and Iran. China's huge crude oil stockpile is a buffer against price spikes. This means that any energy-driven inflation in other parts of the world won't hit China. By increasing the exports of refined goods…
Russell: China imports most energy but has the best position on Iran
China, the world's biggest energy importer, is vulnerable to the rise in prices of crude oil and natural gas caused by the conflict between Israel and United States against Iran. China's huge crude oil stockpile is likely to be a buffer against any price spikes in the world, so that any energy-driven inflation will not affect China. In the event that crude oil supplies from the Middle East are disrupted for a long time…
Steve Cohen's Point72 has hired a Castleton veteran trader to help with commodities, according to sources
Three sources told us that Steve Cohen's hedge fund Point72 Asset Management hired Ryan Sheffler to be its natural gas portfolio manager in order to expand the commodities trading desk. Point72 is one of the few large hedge funds that has not yet built a commodities business. It has been pushing into this space in recent weeks. Citadel, Millennium and other investment firms have made huge profits due to the extreme volatility of commodity prices.
The US AI boom is facing an electric shock
The race for artificial intelligence dominance by Big Tech may hit a snag soon as U.S. power grids struggle to keep up with hyperscalers who spend a lot of money. Microsoft, Amazon Alphabet, and Meta are among the technology giants in America that have announced in recent months plans to spend over $600 billion in AI by 2026. Investors are already unsure about the viability of this strategy due to the investment wave. The ambitious U.S.
Russell: Copper is the driving force behind BHP and Rio but getting more of it is the key.
Copper's role as a major profit driver is highlighted in the latest results of BHP Group and Rio Tinto. However, they also highlight how difficult it will likely be to gain more exposure for this industrial metal. BHP, the world's largest ?listed miner, reported last week a stronger-than-expected half-year underlying attributable profit of $6.2 billion, up 22% from the same period a year earlier.
Russell: Copper is the driving force behind BHP and Rio but if you want more, it's up to you.
Copper's role as a major profit driver is highlighted in the latest results of BHP Group and Rio Tinto. However, they also highlight how difficult it will likely be to gain more exposure for this industrial metal. BHP, the world's largest ?listed miner, reported last week a stronger-than-expected half-year underlying attributable profit of $6.2 billion, up 22% from the same period a year earlier.
Maguire: Maguire, China's renewables boom has boosted it to a rare clean-capacity club.
In 2025, the world's largest polluter will have crossed a crucial energy transition threshold by installing more clean power than fossil fuel production capacity for the first. Global Energy Monitor data shows that China will have 1,494 gigawatts (GW) of clean energy generation capacity operating in 2025. This compares to 1,420 GW?of fossil fuel-fueled capacity. China now draws 51% of its energy from clean sources…