Russell: No rush to import US energy while Asia's imports slide under Trump

Asian countries have not rushed to buy U.S. commodities of energy, despite President Donald Trump's call for a reduction in trade surpluses.

The real deal in any future talks between China and the Trump administration will involve the three major energy commodities.

Other Asian economies are also looking to curry favor with Trump, and secure a better deal for themselves than the heavy tariffs that were imposed by his "Liberation Day", announced on April 2 and then paused for 90-days.

In the four months since Trump's return to the White House Asia's energy imports from the United States have actually decreased compared to the same period last.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, imports of crude oil between February and May decreased to 1,53 million barrels per daily (bpd), from 1.55million bpd during the same period in 2020.

In the period from February to May, Asia imported 4.78 million metric tonnes of U.S. LNG. This is down 40% on the 8.04 millions tons imported in the same period last year.

The total coal arrivals in this four-month period was 13.79 millions tons, compared to 14.19 millions tons between February and May of last year.

These numbers indicate that Asia, which is the top region for commodity imports, has not increased its purchases of U.S. products.

The numbers do not show the dynamics that are at play in the larger picture. They may indicate that certain Asian countries are just beginning to increase their imports of U.S. Energy.

India has increased its crude oil purchases from the United States. Kpler estimates that India imported 253,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil during the four-month period from February to may, compared with 175,000 barrels per day in the same time frame last year.

Kpler predicts that June crude oil arrivals will be 439,000 barrels per day, the second highest monthly total ever.

The fact that U.S. crude oil prices are rising on a market where pricing is competitive may indicate an interest in doing more business with the United States.

India also bought more U.S. Coal, according to Kpler data. Imports in May were 3.1 million tonnes, which was the highest ever.

India imported 8.82 million tonnes of U.S. Coal in the four-month period from February to may, an increase of 12% over the 7.85 millions tons during the same time last year.

U.S. Coal is also a small portion of India's total imports. However, the increasing imports are noteworthy, as U.S. Coal has a higher freight cost than competitors like Indonesia, Australia, and South Africa.

JAPAN, SOUTH KOREAN

Other Asian importers, including Japan, have not increased their shipments of coal from the United States. In the period from February to May, Japan imported 1.75 million tonnes, down from 2,15 million tons during the same months in 2020.

Japan also bought less U.S. LNG. Only 1,04 million tonnes arrived from February to may, compared with 1.75 million tons in the same period of 2024.

Higher spot prices are likely to be the reason for the drop in U.S. LNG shipments to Asia. Cargoes have moved to Europe to replenish natural gas reserves depleted by winter.

Kpler shows that the U.S. has lost China as a major market for U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) due to the ongoing trade war. No cargoes have arrived in China, the world's largest buyer of super-chilled fuel, in March, May or April.

Kpler reports that China's imports from the United States of coal has also fallen to zero. Only one cargo of 35,000 tons arrived in May. No crude oil was imported.

South Korea is the only major Asian importer that has increased their purchases of U.S. oil. In May, crude imports reached the second highest level on record, at 593,000 barrels per day.

South Korea's imports of U.S. LNG have also increased in recent months. May's 560,000 tonnage was the highest since last October, and Kpler predicts another increase in June, up to 570,000 tonnes.

Overall, however, Asia's commodity-importing countries are holding back on increasing their imports of U.S. Energy.

The United States may still be planning to use imports in negotiations with the Trump Administration, or the prices for U.S. coal, crude oil, and LNG may not be competitive.

For now, Asia has not adopted the practice of buying more U.S. oil to reduce trade surpluses.

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These are the views of a columnist, who is also an author.

(source: Reuters)