China's imports major commodities suffered a hiccup in the month of May: Russell

China's imports have slowed in May. Crude oil, coal and iron ore all saw declines, amid worries about the growth of the world's largest economy.

Customs data released Tuesday showed that only natural gas imports improved, with 10.11 million tons in May slightly above the 9.67 millions in April. However, they were still 11% lower than a year ago.

The arrivals of crude oil in May fell to 10,97 million barrels a day (bpd), down 6.2% compared with April's 11,69 million bpd. This is also lower than the 12.1 millions bpd for March which was the highest month since August 2023.

Imports of iron ore fell to 98.13 millions tons in May, down from 103.14 in April. They were also lower than the 102.03 from last May.

Imports of all grades coal fell to 36.04 millions tons in May, down from 37.83million tons in April and 17.8% lower than 42.82million tons in 2024.

Imports of unwrought copper were 427,000 tonnes in May, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the 438,000 tons imported in April. They also fell below the 514,000 tonnes imported in the same month last year.

The decline in major commodity imports looks alarming for China, the world's largest buyer of natural resources. China is also facing a trade war with the United States as well as sluggish domestic growth in key sectors such residential construction.

There is always the risk that you read too much into monthly figures, which are often quite volatile. They can also be influenced by price movements during the period of time when cargoes have been arranged.

Crude oil provides a good illustration.

China's imports in January and in February were low. Cargoes delivered during these months had been purchased against the backdrop of rising oil prices. Brent futures, which are used as a benchmark, rose from early December, to a high of $82.63 per barrel on January 15.

Brent oil fell to a record low of $58,40 per barrel on April 9.

The rebound in crude imports from China in March and April coincided with a falling price trend at the time the cargoes were purchased.

Nevertheless, cargoes for May would have been booked when the prices began to rise again.

China's imports have also fluctuated in recent months. They dropped as U.S. vessel sanctions were implemented, and then recovered as traders found ways to get around them.

The pattern is likely to continue, as commodity analysts Kpler estimate China's Iranian oil imports at 743 500 bpd for May but forecast a steep rise to 1.48 millions bpd for June.

Price Moves

The price of iron ore may have also been affected by the recent price movements. Prices rose modestly in April, when the majority of cargoes arriving in May would have been booked.

The Singapore Exchange contract has reached a high of $101,80 per ton on 14 May, and since then it has moderated to $96,26 on 6 June.

The price movements are modest but the slight decline could encourage some steel mills in China to buy, particularly given the general belief that Beijing is planning new stimulus measures for the coming weeks.

Copper imports also reflect global market dynamics rather than domestic conditions in China.

Imports from China have been trending down and are now 6.7% lower for the first five month of 2025 than the same period in 2018.

The physical copper market has shifted to the United States, as the market expects President Donald Trump will impose a tax on the imports of this industrial metal.

The U.S. market has increased the price of copper delivered to the United States and pushed metals away from China.

The London price was volatile, driven by reports about what Trump might do. However, prices have been trending upwards, rising from a low of $8.105 per ton on April 9 to $9.701 at the start of Asian trading on Monday.

Strong production and low local prices have reduced the need to import coal, which is the main commodity that China has been unable to import due its domestic supply and prices.

In response, seaborne thermal coal has dropped to four-year levels. There are early signs of a pickup in demand, but further drops will be needed to spur any interest in increasing imports.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)