A strong El Nino may be imminent. Climate change will exacerbate its effects
WMO announced on Tuesday that the El Nino weather pattern was forming and will cause extreme weather all over the world in this year. Scientists believe climate change's impact will be particularly severe.
World Meteorological Organization says there's 80% chance that an El Nino will develop between June and August. And 90% chance of it lasting until November. The statement is the most clear indication yet.
El Nino occurs naturally every two to seven year, when weakening winds in the east Pacific result in warmer water. It tends to result in higher temperatures around the world and disrupted rain - with heavy rains or droughts in certain regions. Hurricane formation is also affected.
This year's weather forecast is particularly concerning for two reasons.
First, there is a chance that El Nino this year - and the impact it will have - may be more intense than usual. WMO stated that there is still uncertainty and some models do predict a strong El Nino, while others don't. WMO forecasts indicate that a strong El Nio is possible. This would be defined as sea surface temperatures of the eastern Pacific being at least 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit), above average.
Climate change is the second major cause of concern.
Since pre-industrial times, greenhouse gas emissions have increased the?average temperature of the Earth by around 1.3C. This higher baseline amplifies the effects of El Nino, allowing for higher temperatures, droughts, heatwaves and rains.
Piers Forster is Professor of Physical Climate Change, University of Leeds. "When we have an El Nino, these things are more intense and more impactful," he said. Climate change combined with El Nino led to the WMO warning that 2027 could be the warmest year on record. The record is held by 2024, the last El Nino. The WMO rated this El Nino as strong.
The risks are enormous
El Ninos are all different and their effects differ?around the globe - so it is difficult to predict what this one will do.
El Nino tends to bring more rain to regions such as southern South America, Central Asia, and Australia, while Central America is drier. Heatwaves are also intensified by the phenomenon, even in areas far away from the Pacific like Europe.
The effects of these conditions can be devastating to the food industry, human life and other industries.
Floods in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil in April and May 2024 killed over 180 people. They also displaced more than 600,000. Scientists say that climate change and El Nino both exacerbated the rains which caused the disaster.
Francisco Aquino is the head of Rio Grande do Sul University's Climate Centre. He said that a strong El Nio this year could cause a disaster similar to what happened in 1998.
Aquino said that the risks of an El Nino are huge when combined with climate change. "A strong El Nino could lead to the same scenario as we experienced then because the world is getting warmer and the temperature of the ocean keeps increasing."
El Ninos is also exacerbated by climate change in southern Africa. The weather pattern in southern Africa reduces rainfall, which limits hydropower production and cuts crop yields.
Izidine Pinto is a Senior Researcher in Climate Change at the Netherlands Meteorological Institute. She said: "Climate change will intensify the below-normal rain, making it last longer, or having less rainfall. This, of course will affect agriculture and especially the rain-fed farms in the area."
Antonio Navarra of the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change in Italy said that stronger Pacific cyclones are another impact on which governments need to prepare.
El Nino, which will inject a huge amount of energy to the system due to the warmer water temperatures in the Pacific, will make the environment more conducive for tropical cyclones .....
Scientists say that the extremes of this year's El Nino may be a taste of what will come in five years, even if there is no El Nino.
Forster said, "It gives a window into the future."
Theodore Keeping said El Nino has an impact on weather patterns that a warm climate would not. But, in general, it gives a glimpse of the future climate.
He said: "You can sample the weather that you'd otherwise only see in a warm climate in an El Nino neutral." (Reporting and additional reporting by Lisandra paraguassu, editing by Barbara Lewis).
(source: Reuters)
