Sources say that OPEC+ is likely to increase oil production on Sunday.
Two OPEC+ source said that OPEC+ will likely consider a new oil production increase at their meeting on Sunday. This would allow key producers to 'add more barrels' if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the world’s most important oil route which is currently closed by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran.
OPEC+ decided to 'adjust' its output to 206,000 barrels a day in April at their?last meeting, held on March 1. This was after the group had kept output constant during the first quarter due to concerns about oversupply. The U.S./Israeli war against Iran also began to disrupt oil supplies from Middle East countries.
The war led to the biggest oil supply disruption in history a month after it began.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq Kuwait and United Arab Emirates, the top OPEC producers, have reduced their output as a result of the effective 'closure' of Hormuz. This accounts for more than 20% of oil transport. Crude oil prices are at a four-year peak of $120 per barrel. Drone attacks on Russia's oil production are also a major factor.
Sunday's meeting is usually expected to determine May's output quotas. Although there are no signs of a reopening in Hormuz yet, a source stated that OPEC+ will likely agree to quotas for May. This would not have measurable impact on the supply but would indicate OPEC+'s readiness to increase output if tankers can resume shipments across the strait.
The OPEC+ source stated that "we need to respond, at least in writing."
OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and?Russia have not responded to our requests for comment.
OUTPUT FLXIBILITY IS LIMITED
The other eight OPEC+ nations - Russia Kazakhstan Algeria and Oman – are not affected by the closure of the waterway but have limited ability to increase output. OPEC+ includes 22 members, including Iran. However, in recent years only eight of these countries were involved in the monthly production decisions.
After President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. was ending its war against Iran soon, oil dropped to $100 on Wednesday. However, it rebounded on Thursday when he stated the U.S. will continue attacks on Iran.
Another OPEC+ source stated that "Now the market needs every barrel produced."
Both sources refused to identify themselves and said that formal consultations had not yet started. Third source says a pause on monthly production increments is also possible due to current export constraints.
A separate ministerial meeting called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will also take place on Sunday.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates both have export routes which bypass the strait. Saudi crude exports via Yanbu, on the Red Sea Coast, have risen to 4.6 million barrels per day, or near capacity.
The UAE continue to export from Fujairah which is outside the strait. According to Kpler's data, Fujairah crude oil and condensate exports rose in March to 1.61m bpd from 1.17m bpd during February. This represents nearly half of UAE exports prior to the start of the war.
The eight OPEC+ nations raised their production quotas from April 2025 to December 2025 by approximately 2.9 million bpd, or roughly 3% global demand. They then paused increases between January and March 2026. Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar and Alex Lawler. Editing by Simon Webb, Louise Heavens and Olesya Astakhova.
(source: Reuters)
