Russell: Hormuz's impact on China's commodity imports is evident in the oil and metals prices.
China's imports are being influenced by the Iran war. April data shows a sharp drop in crude oil, but a rise in trade of metals. Customs figures last week showed a sharp decline in crude oil arrivals, the largest in nearly four years.
Imports in April were down by?20% compared to the same period in 2025, as seaborne imports from the Middle East dropped sharply due to the closure of the Strait?of?Hormuz? since the U.S. & Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.
According to Kpler's data, China only received 648,000 bpd through the Strait of Hormuz during April. This is down from the average of 4,07 million bpd for the three-month period from January to march.
The last tankers to leave the narrow waterway before the start of conflict would have been in March or April. However, some have managed to make it out of China in recent weeks, despite the fact that both Iran and the United States have effectively declared the waterway closed.
When assessing China's crude imports, the price is another factor to be considered. The drop in April fits the pattern of past years of increased imports during times of low prices and decreased arrivals during times of high prices.
After the beginning of the conflict, the sharp increase in crude oil prices would have discouraged China's refiners to buy their usual quantities.
Brent futures hit a 2026 peak of $126.41 per barrel on April 30. This is up 74% compared to the previous close of $72.48 a barrel, which was reached on February 27. Some physical cargoes were trading at a premium of about $40 over futures.
CHINA HELPS -
The decline in China's crude oil imports helped to ease the squeeze on crude supplies in Asia. This was the destination of about 80% of volumes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war against Iran.
This is more a coincidence than a sign of China's altruism.
At least 1.2 billion barrels are held in strategic and commercial stockpiles. It makes sense to cut imports for China when the price is high, since it is widely expected that the prices will drop sharply once the strait has been fully reopened.
China would use its huge crude oil stockpile if it were altruistic to increase exports of refined fuels. Due to a shortage, diesel and jet fuel prices have reached record highs.
China's refined product exports fell to 3.1 millions metric tons in the month of April, down by 33% compared to March, and at their lowest level in over a decade, as Beijing chose to keep fuel on its domestic market.
There have not been any formal announcements about the relaxation of this informal restriction.
Beijing may have realized that fuel shortages among its neighbors will eventually affect its own economy. Or, refiners might be pushing to resume exports due to the high margins available, especially for middle distillates.
ALUMINIUM, IRON ORE
The increase in China's aluminium exports, which rose 15% from April last year to 598 tons, is likely due to higher profits.
The price of aluminium in London has risen by 14% from the day before the Iran War began. It ended at $3,579.50 per ton on Monday as the conflict reduced about 8% global supply.
Iron ore is one commodity that China's imports are able to hold up. April's arrivals were 103.9 million tonnes, down from March's total of 104.74 millions, but slightly higher on a daily basis, at 3.46 from 3.38.
Iron ore imports are not increasing because exports or steel production is rising. Both are falling, with exports and production both down 9.7% from the same period last year.
It appears that China is stockpiling iron ore to increase its inventories, in case the shipping industry becomes restricted by a lack of fuel oil due to refineries in Asia struggling to find enough crude.
Iron ore stocks at Chinese ports
The record high was 166.9 millions tons, set in mid-March. Despite the drop, the current level remains higher than any other point in time, and is 14.2% more than the 141.3 tons of the same week in 2013.
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These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Christian Schmollinger).
(source: Reuters)
