OPEC maintains robust outlook for oil demand, but does not see a peak until 2050
* OPEC claims peak demand is still a long way off
* OPEC forecasts a higher demand growth than other forecasters
* U.S. shale production likely peaked by 2025, according to the report (Source changed on OPEC website paragraph 3).
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, 18 JUNE - OPEC has maintained its forecast of robust growth in global 'oil demand' over the next four years and has shifted its long-term?view. It cited a worldwide shift to more supportive policies regarding oil usage and said there were no signs that demand would peak.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a group of 11 countries, is heavily dependent on oil to generate government revenue. Its views on the demand for oil are more optimistic than other organizations in the industry such as the International Energy Agency.
OPEC's 2026 World Oil Outlook website states that the world demand will increase to 113.3 millions bpd by 2030, from 105.1million barrels per day in 2025.
The 2030 forecast is unchanged from last year's report.
OPEC STATES THAT THE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE IS CHANGING.
The report comes at a time when OPEC faces unprecedented challenges in the year 2026, as the Iran War has forced?Gulf countries to cut back on exports, and the United Arab Emirates shocked other OPEC members by leaving the group.
OPEC says that despite China's "impressive" progress in its switch to renewable energy, changes in government policies in the U.S. and Europe, and the long-term growth of India, the Middle East and Africa, will be driving the demand. "The increased emphasis on energy affordability and security has shifted energy policy across the globe," OPEC stated in its report.
This is reflected by policy changes and reversals that are expected to support oil demand on a medium- and long-term basis.
OPEC cited a number of factors, including a slower than expected take-up rate for electric vehicles in Europe and changes to U.S. policy by President Donald Trump’s administration affecting the support for renewables as well as EVs and fuel-efficiency standards.
No Demand Peak on?HORIZON
OPEC has stated that it does not expect a peak in oil demand by 2050.
The IEA, on the other hand, said that oil demand would reach 113 million bpd by mid-century. The IEA's forecast for 2050 is lower than OPEC, but the agency expected the demand to peak in 2029. According to?ship-tracking data, the U.S. became the largest oil exporter of the world in 2026. This is due to the surge in its production driven by shale and the disruptions caused by wars and sanctions to Saudi Arabia and?Russian oil exports.
OPEC said that the U.S. tight crude production, also known as shale oil, peaked at 9 million bpd in 2025.?They see a modest growth in total U.S.liquids supply of 400,000 bpd up until 2030, and then a plateau in production.
The report expects that production in countries outside OPEC+ – the larger group which includes OPEC plus Russia and other partners – will peak by the early 2030s.
OPEC is calling for increased oil industry investments. The group estimates that the sector will need $17.7 trillion in investment by 2050 compared to $18.2 billion estimated last year. (Additional reporting by Olesya Astrakhova Editing Jan Harvey)
(source: Reuters)
