OPEC maintains robust outlook for oil demand, but does not see a peak until 2050
OPEC: Peak demand not imminent
* OPEC forecasts a higher demand growth than other forecasters
* Says shale production likely peaked around 2025, but that the U.S. output plateaus after 2030
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, JUNE '18 - OPEC affirmed its forecast of robust growth in global oil demand over the next four years and boosted its long-term view. Citing a worldwide shift to more supportive policies relating to?oil usage, it said there were no signs that demand would peak.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a group of 11 countries, is heavily dependent on oil to generate government revenue. Its views on the demand for oil are more optimistic than other organizations in the industry such as the International Energy Agency.
OPEC's?2026 World Oil Outlook revealed that the world demand would rise from 105.1 million barrels a day in 2025 to 113.3 millions bpd by 2030.
The 2030 forecast is unchanged from the last report.
OPEC STATES THAT THE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE IS CHANGING.
The report comes at a time when OPEC faces unprecedented challenges in the year 2026, as the Iran War has forced Gulf exporters to cut back on their exports, and the United Arab Emirates, which was an OPEC member for nearly 60 years, shocked the other members by leaving.
OPEC says that despite China's "impressive progress" in its shift to renewable energies, changes in government policies in the U.S. and Europe, and growth over the long term in India, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, will be the main drivers of demand?expansion.
"The increased emphasis on energy affordability and security has shifted energy policy across the globe," OPEC stated in its report.
This is reflected by policy changes and reversals that are expected to support oil demand on a medium- and long-term basis.
OPEC cited a number of factors, including a slower than expected take-up rate for electric vehicles in Europe and changes to U.S. policy by President Donald Trump’s administration affecting the support for renewables as well as EVs and fuel-efficiency standards.
No Demand Peak? On Horizon
OPEC has stated that it does not expect a peak in demand for oil to occur anytime soon.
The IEA, on the other hand, said that oil demand would reach 113?million bpd in mid-century. While OPEC's forecast for 2050 is lower, the IEA had previously predicted that demand would peak in 2029.
According to ship-tracking data?, the U.S. will be the largest oil exporter by 2026. This is due to the surge in production driven by shale and the disruption of Saudi and Russian exports caused by wars and sanctions.
OPEC's report, however, states that U.S. tight crude production, also known as shale oil, is likely to peak in 2025, at just under?9 millions bpd. It sees a modest total?U.S. The liquids market will grow by 400,000 barrels per day until 2030, and then plateau.
The report predicts that production in countries outside OPEC+ – the larger group which includes OPEC plus Russia and other partners – will peak by the early 2030s.
OPEC is calling for increased oil industry investments. The group estimates that the oil sector will need $17.7 trillion in investment by 2050, compared to $18.2 billion estimated last year. (Editing by Jan Harvey).
(source: Reuters)
