US Natural Gas Reach a One-Week High as Output Drops, LNG Exports Surge
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U.S. natural gas futures edged up to a fresh one-week high on Monday on a drop in output over the past couple of weeks and forecasts for cooler weather and higher demand through early May than previously expected.
Gas futures were also supported by near-record gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants and a roughly 6% jump in crude futures on fears the U.S.-Iran ceasefire could collapse after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 1.5 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $2.689 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since April 8 for a second day in a row.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 51 days in a row as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 60 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged a negative $1.83 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at 110.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, the same as in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.9 bcfd over the past 14 days to a preliminary 10-week low of 108.3 bcfd on Monday. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.
Analysts projected that mostly mild weather so far this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast 7% above normal levels during the week ended April 17, up from 6% above normal during the week ended April 10.
Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 5.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 103.6 bcfd this week to 101.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
A tanker arrived at the QatarEnergy/Exxon Mobil 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass facility under construction in Texas to collect the plant's inaugural export of the superchilled gas.
Week ended April 17 Forecast | Week ended April 10 Actual | Year ago April 17 | Five-year average (2021-2025) April 17 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +86 | +59 | +77 | +64 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,056 | 1,970 | 1,921 | 1,926 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.7% | +5.8% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub <NGc1> | 2.73 | 2.67 | 3.43 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1> | 13.85 | 13.55 | 11.48 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1> | 15.00 | 16.13 | 12.23 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 123 | 116 | 82 | 124 | 122 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 41 | 43 | 56 | 46 | 41 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 164 | 159 | 137 | 170 | 163 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.0 | 109.4 | 110.0 | 106.4 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.7 | N/A | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 116.8 | 116.2 | 116.7 | N/A | 107.4 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | N/A | 2.5 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.6 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 15.8 | 13.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 6.4 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 8.6 |
U.S. Residential | 7.6 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 11.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 30.0 | 28.8 | 29.4 | 30.5 | 27.2 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.3 | 22.9 | 22.7 | 22.4 | 23.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 73.8 | 75.7 | 73.9 | 74.0 | 79.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 101.4 | 103.6 | 101.5 | N/A | 100.7 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 95 | 95 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 98 | 98 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 102 | 102 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Apr 24 | Week ended Apr 17 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 15 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> | 2.71 | 2.78 | 3.41 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> | 1.80 | 2.04 | 2.81 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> | 1.20 | 1.17 | 2.63 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> | 1.99 | 1.98 | 2.69 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> | 2.23 | 2.15 | 3.03 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> | 2.25 | 2.10 | 3.15 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> | 1.82 | 1.79 | 2.94 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> | -4.81 | -7.37 | 1.38 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> | 0.83 | 0.89 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX> | 49.95 | 50.29 | 42.26 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX> | 63.55 | 70.72 | 50.50 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) <W-MIDCP-IDX> | 10.79 | 18.52 | 26.45 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX> | 18.00 | 5.30 | 25.26 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) <W-SP15-IDX> | 3.75 | 1.62 | 9.76 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reuters)
