US Natural Gas Futures Reach Eight-Month Peak
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U.S. natural gas futures scaled an eight-month peak on Monday, buoyed by robust flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and cold weather.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.5%, to settle at $4.338per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract had climbed to $4.51 during the session, its highest since March 11.
Analysts said the rally could fade if the cold snap proves short-lived. Forecasts show temperatures moderating next week.
"The market is reacting to this early burst of cold, and that's what pushed prices up to these recent highs," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy trading at StoneX Financial.
"LNG exports have helped raise the floor for prices, but the weather drive may not have a lot of staying power. If temperatures ease in the next week or two, we could see some of these gains unwind."
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a fifth straight session as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the biggest U.S. oil-producing basin.
"Some unexpectedly strong export activity has likely conjured up images of additional strong gains later this year and into next as additional LNG infrastructure is completed at a time when several overseas customers are currently seeing storage levels a bit below last year amid continued uncertainties regarding Russian supply availability," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Venture Global reported that it swung to a profit in the third quarter, boosted by record liquefied natural gas exports and new long-term supply deals.
Dutch and British power prices were mixed, reflecting forecasts of a faster return to cooler weather that would lift gas demand for heating.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG estimated 246 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, compared with 236 estimated on Friday. HDDs, which measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.
Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to inject gas into storage, resulting in about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump to 119.3 bcfd this week from 108.6 bcfd last week, before easing to 115.3 bcfd as temperatures moderate.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.7 bcfd so far in November from a record 16.7 bcfd in October. Those flows are on track to increase further in coming months.
Week ended Nov 7 Forecast | Week ended Oct 31 Actual | Year ago Nov 7 | Five-year average Nov 7 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +33 | +33 | +45 | +25 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,948 | 3,915 | 3,966 | 3,788 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.2% | +4.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub <NGc1> | 4.43 | 4.33 | 2.98 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1> | 10.65 | 10.62 | 13.89 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1> | 11.13 | 11.16 | 14.12 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs | 246 | 236 | 198 | 248 | 246 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 11 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 257 | 254 | 209 | 259 | 255 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 108.8 | 109.2 | 108.8 | 101.3 | 99.2 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.0 | N/A | 8.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 116.9 | 117.3 | 116.8 | N/A | 107.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.5 | N/A | 5.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 17.5 | 18.3 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 12.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.1 | 12.1 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 11.0 |
U.S. Residential | 12.4 | 18.1 | 17.1 | 10.4 | 15.7 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.4 | 29.8 | 28.3 | 34.5 | 30.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.6 | 24.3 | 23.6 | 22.7 | 24.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 82.2 | 92.2 | 88.0 | 83.1 | 89.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 108.6 | 119.3 | 115.3 | N/A | 110.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 93 | 93 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 88 | 88 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 88 | 89 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 14 | Week ended Nov 7 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 14 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 36 | 36 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 21 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> | 3.76 | 3.71 | 2.10 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> | 2.85 | 2.93 | 1.99 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> | 2.84 | 2.98 | 3.29 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> | 2.91 | 3.00 | 1.83 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> | 3.39 | 3.17 | 1.98 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> | 3.70 | 3.20 | 2.70 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> | 2.86 | 3.34 | 2.55 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> | -0.78 | -0.20 | 0.33 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> | 1.88 | 1.45 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX> | 66.17 | 53.77 | 44.71 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX> | 78.18 | 50.77 | 35.99 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C <W-MIDCP-IDX> | 37.30 | 33.92 | 37.13 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX> | 29.14 | 18.80 | 29.23 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 <W-SP15-IDX> | 38.25 | 25.99 | 30.01 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
(Reuters)
