US Natural Gas Futures Climb 4% with LNG Flows, Cold December Forecast
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U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% on Wednesday on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for higher demand than previously expected as the weather turns colder than normal going into December.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.9 cents, or 4.1%, to settle at $4.550 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.3 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.
Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain warmer than normal through November 26 before turning colder than normal from November 28 to December 4.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 116.6 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to 18.0 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.
In other LNG news, the Imsaikah LNG vessel continued to move across the Atlantic Ocean to Exxon Mobil QatarEnergy's 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analysts' comments.
The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around November 29, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG later this year or early next year.
The United States became the world's biggest LNG producer in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Around the world, gas traded near $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and at a two-month high of $12 at the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.
Week ended Nov 14 Forecast | Week ended Nov 7 Actual | Year ago Nov 14 | Five-year average Nov 14 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -13 | +45 | +3 | +12 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,947 | 3,960 | 3,969 | 3,800 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +3.9% | +4.5% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub <NGc1> | 4.41 | 4.37 | 2.98 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1> | 10.49 | 10.66 | 13.89 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1> | 11.53 | 11.40 | 14.12 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs | 298 | 281 | 298 | 312 | 327 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 13 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 311 | 294 | 305 | 321 | 334 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.4 | 108.8 | 108.9 | 102.7 | 99.2 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.2 | N/A | 8.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.7 | 117.5 | 117.1 | N/A | 107.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | N/A | 5.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.3 | 18.4 | 18.3 | 13.9 | 12.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 11.6 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 11.0 |
U.S. Residential | 17.2 | 16.1 | 16.7 | 16.4 | 15.7 |
U.S. Power Plant | 30.8 | 31.3 | 29.6 | 31.9 | 30.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.1 | 23.5 | 23.7 | 23.8 | 24.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 91.7 | 89.5 | 88.9 | 90.8 | 89.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 118.9 | 116.7 | 116.5 | N/A | 110.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 88 | 88 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 85 | 85 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 85 | 85 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 21 | Week ended Nov 14 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 15 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 37 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 16 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> | 3.70 | 3.71 | 2.10 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> | 3.45 | 3.55 | 1.99 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> | 3.98 | 4.35 | 3.29 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> | 3.30 | 3.36 | 1.83 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> | 3.48 | 3.52 | 1.98 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> | 4.63 | 4.78 | 2.70 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> | 3.87 | 4.02 | 2.55 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> | 1.16 | -0.48 | 0.33 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> | 1.58 | 1.28 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX> | 70.89 | 72.36 | 44.71 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX> | 72.08 | 68.92 | 35.99 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C <W-MIDCP-IDX> | 51.27 | 43.46 | 37.13 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX> | 40.56 | 43.67 | 29.23 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 <W-SP15-IDX> | 44.32 | 45.14 | 30.01 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
(Reuters)
