Maguire: Maguire, China's renewables boom has boosted it to a rare clean-capacity club.

In 2025, the world's largest polluter will have crossed an important energy transition threshold by installing more clean power generation capacity than fossil fuel generation capacity.

Global Energy Monitor data shows that China will have 1,494 gigawatts (GW) of clean power generation in operation by 2025. This compares to the?1,420-GW capacity powered by coal, gas, and other fossil fuels.

China has now a 51% share of its energy fleet that is derived from clean sources. It joins Brazil, France, and Germany as major economies that are primarily powered by clean sources.

The United States is at the opposite end of the spectrum, with 233 GW (or more) more fossil fuel power capacity than clean power capacity operating in 2025. This was more than any other country.

GEM data show that India, Saudi Arabia and Russia are also major economies whose power capacities are heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

The U.S. is likely to increase its lead in fossil fuels, despite China's continued clean growth, as the U.S. has reduced federal support for renewables while promoting further natural gas and coal growth.

The divergence between the energy systems of China and the U.S. highlights the stark differences in views on the future of energy. China is pushing for cleaner generation, while the U.S. advocates greater fossil fuel dependence.

Solar-powered Overhaul

The most significant development in China has been a 1,554 percent increase in the utility-scale solar power capacity since 2015.

GEM data show that solar farms in China accounted for an unprecedented 18.3% of the operational capacity last year. This is up from only a 2.4% share in 2015.

This increase in solar power capacity has done more than simply add "clean energy" to China's system of energy. This allowed China to lower the share of coal-fired energy in its overall generation mix from 64% to 42.7% last year, a record low.

Solar has now become the second-largest power source in China, behind coal. It is expected to grow further over the next decade due to the massive increases in solar component production in China.

China's clean power capacity increased by 253% from 2015 to?2025. Its fossil fuel capacity grew by 50%, resulting in an 113% increase in the total generation capacity of power during that decade.

China's battery sector, which is the world leader in production, will continue to accelerate clean energy momentum as it helps to store and discharge more solar power during the day.

U.S. U-TURN?

Between 2015 and 2025, the U.S. clean energy capacity increased by 74% from 300 GW up to 520 GW.

In the same time period, fossil fuel production capacity decreased by around 3% as coal-fired power plants that were outdated were shut down.

The total U.S. capacity footprint has grown by 18% in the last two years, reaching a record 1,272 GW.

In the next few years, the U.S. will see further increases in its generation capacity due to the urgent need to increase electricity supply to run data centres and AI applications.

After the federal government scrapped its incentives for renewable energy, utilities and power developers will likely increase natural gas capacity more than any other power source.

GEM data show that the amount of gas-fired power under construction in the U.S. doubled compared to a year earlier, and the amount in preconstruction increased fivefold.

The gas power boom, once 'completed, will increase the total fossil fuel generation capacity in the United States and reverse recent growth. Clean power's share may have risen from 28% to 41% of the overall power mix.

In fact, by prioritizing fossil fuels above renewables in the U.S. utility sector, it is likely that the U.S. electricity system will resemble the development paths of other fossil-fuel-centric economies like Saudi Arabia rather than China's.

Saudi Arabia has seen a steep increase in its clean energy capacity so far this decade. This is especially true for solar power, which has increased from less than 0.5GW in 2020 to more than 11GW last year.

Around 90% of Saudi Arabia’s total power footprint is still based upon fossil fuels. These are likely to continue being the main pillars of the oil-rich country's energy system in the coming decades.

It is expected that the U.S. will continue to exploit its natural gas reserves in the near future.

The U.S. will fall behind the rest of the world in the development of clean energy systems by the end century if it continues to focus on gas.

These are the opinions of a columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)