Maguire: Eastern Europe's secretive surge in solar power generation

In Europe, the discussion of solar energy generation is dominated by Germany and Spain.

Solar capacity in the nine largest producers of solar energy in Eastern Europe has increased at a pace that is more than twice as fast as the rest of Europe over the last five years. This has allowed Eastern Europe to double its regional solar production share since 2019.

Solar farms will provide electricity to at least six Eastern European countries, with a combined total of over 20% of the monthly power they use this summer. This is when solar radiation levels in the region reach their highest level.

The rapid growth of solar power in many countries is replacing or curtailing the output from coal-fired power plants and natural gas-fired power stations. This is causing a steeper drop in emissions in the power sector in Eastern Europe than on the entire continent.

Over the medium-term, it is expected that solar capacity will continue to grow in Eastern Europe as countries there strive to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels imported.

The importance of the region in driving Europe's energy transition should be further elevated.

REGIONAL LEADERSHIPS

Ember, a think tank for energy, has found that nine nations in Eastern Europe are leading the solar expansion.

These nations, in descending order by embedded utility-scale capacity at the end 2024 are: Poland (20.2-gigawatts), Hungary (7.7-gigawatts), Romania (4.7-gigawatts), Czech Republic (4.2-gigawatts), Bulgaria (4.2-gigawatts), Lithuania (2.6-gigawatts), Estonia (1.3-gigawatts), Slovakia (1.2-gigawatts) and Latvia (0.55 GW).

Data from the think tank Ember show that combined solar capacity in these countries will be roughly 46 GW by 2024. This is roughly 13% of Europe’s total solar capacity (361 GW).

This collective solar footprint is compared to only 9 GW for the same countries in 2019. It represents a 450% increase in utility solar power in these countries just in the last five years.

Solar capacity in Europe increased by 145% over the same period. This included an increase of 89% in German solar power and a 246% rise in solar power in Spain.

OUTPUT AFFECT

Solar farms in Eastern Europe have increased their production of electricity at utility scale due to the larger footprint.

The total output of solar electricity across the nine largest solar producers in Eastern Europe in 2019 was approximately 9 terawatt-hours, but it was almost 42 TWh by 2024.

The nearly five-fold increase in the solar output in Eastern Europe contrasted with a little over a double in the solar output in Europe over the same time period, going from around 153 tWh to about 361 tWh by 2024.

Since 2019, the share of solar energy in Eastern Europe's total electricity generation has also risen sharply, and now exceeds that of Europe as a whole.

Solar electricity accounted for only 2% of Eastern Europe’s electricity supply in 2019 but will surpass 10% for the very first time in 2024.

Solar energy will account for 7% of the total electricity consumption in Europe by 2024. This is up from just 3% in 2019.

GROWTH MARKETS

Solar farms in several Eastern European countries generated more than 20% of the total monthly electricity supply during 2024's peak summer months. They are now primed to produce even greater solar shares this summer after further capacity expansion.

Ember data show that Lithuania, Hungary, and Estonia generated over a third (35%) of their monthly total electricity supplied by utilities from solar farms between June and August 2024.

Solar farms generate 20% or more electricity in Bulgaria, Latvia and Poland.

Solar's share in the mix of energy generation is expected to grow this summer as more capacity is added across Europe. This will be especially true in Poland, where the installed capacity has increased by over 25% since 2024.

The expanded footprint of solar energy will help Poland achieve a record-breaking total solar electricity production this year. It will also reduce Poland's overall emissions.

The primary energy source in Poland is coal, but the utilities have cut their coal power output in half in this period. This was largely because of a nearly 2000% increase in solar power generation.

The lower coal-fired power generation in Poland has reduced the country's fossil fuel emissions by 23%, or 22 million metric tonnes of CO2, since 2019.

Poland, as the largest polluter in Eastern Europe, has seen its pollution drop by 26% between 2019 and 2024, to 163 millions tons of CO2.

Thanks to the continued increase in solar power generation and further reductions in coal power production in Eastern Europe, emissions could continue to fall and play a major role in advancing Europe's energy transition efforts.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)