Finland's Neste sees flat biofuel volumes in 2026, lagging market forecast

Neste expects little change in biofuel sales by 2026 despite a supportive regulatory environment in Europe, the company said Thursday after it surpassed its quarterly core profit expectations.

It is expected that the volume of renewable fuels in 2026 will remain at levels from last year, but planned maintenance breaks in oil products will lead to a decline in sales.

RBC analysts wrote that the volume outlook could 'weigh on today's sentiment.

Neste shares fell 4% at the opening of Helsinki's trading session, after RBC stated that the outlook for renewables was softer than expected by market analysts who were expecting a 9% growth this year. Neste's renewables division has seen a boost in sales due to European regulations aimed at reducing emissions from fuels and subsidies for businesses using biofuel. Europe accounted for 73% of the total fourth-quarter business sales, Neste said.

Neste reported comparable earnings of 601 millions euros ($709million) before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the fourth quarter of 2025. This figure is more than triple the previous year's figure of 168 million euros.

In a poll conducted by the company, analysts had predicted an EBITDA comparable to 526 million euro on average.

Since last year, the European Union has required that at least 2 percent of all fuel available in EU airports be "sustainable aviation fuel" (SAF), with a target to increase to 6 percent by 2030.

Neste reported that SAF sales volumes reached a record of 253,000 metric tonnes in the third quarter.

RBC, however, noted that volume was mostly flat in comparison to the?251,000 tonnes booked for the three previous months, whereas some analysts expected an increase. Neste proposes a dividend payout of 0.20 euros for each share in 2025. This is unchanged from 2024.

(source: Reuters)