China increases coal mining to provide winter power: Kemp
China's coal production has reached record levels, and its imports have also risen. However, the surge in power generated by solar farms and hydro dams has reduced thermal generation. The reliability of electricity is dependent on coal-fired power generation, especially during the winter when solar and hydro output are lower and the system relies more heavily on fossil fuel. Even though wind and solar power have been deployed in record numbers, coal is still the most common source of electricity generation, with winter months seeing a rise to over 75%.
China increases coal mining to provide winter power: Kemp
China's coal production has reached record levels, and its imports have also risen. However, the surge in power generated by solar farms and hydro dams has reduced thermal generation. The reliability of electricity is dependent on coal-fired power generation, especially during the winter when solar and hydro output are lower and the system relies more heavily on fossil fuels. Even though wind and solar power have been deployed in record numbers, coal is still the most common source of electricity generation, with winter months seeing a rise to over 75%.
Kemp: Oil bears focus attention on low demand and planned production boost
Investors remain resolutely pessimistic about the future of petroleum prices, despite growing confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates in order to stimulate consumer spending and business investment. Fund managers sold oil futures and option last week after the rally to cover shorts the previous week quickly lost momentum. In the seven-day period ending August 20, hedge funds and other money mangers sold equivalent to 48 million barrels of oil in six important futures and option contracts.
Kemp: Oil bears focus attention on low demand and planned production boost
Investors remain resolutely pessimistic about the future of petroleum prices, despite growing confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates in order to stimulate consumer spending and business investment. Fund managers sold oil futures and option last week after the rally to cover shorts the previous week quickly lost momentum. In the seven-day period ending August 20, hedge funds and other money managers sold equivalent to 48 million barrels of oil in six important futures and option contracts.
Kemp: Oil bears become cautious as financial markets ease.
Investors reduced their short positions on petroleum after the other financial markets stabilized following an abrupt plunge earlier in this month. Crude prices also found support above $75 a barrel. Over the course of the week ending August 13, hedge funds and other money mangers purchased the equivalent amount of 74,000,000 barrels on the six most important contracts for petroleum futures and option contracts. The majority of purchases were made to buy back existing bearish short positions (+19 million barrels), rather than create new bullish long positions (-55 millions). Fund managers purchased U.S.
The European gas surplus is almost gone: Kemp
The record European gas surplus that was inherited in winter 2023/24 is now largely gone, thanks to a very small accumulation of stocks so far this summer 2024.Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data shows that inventories in the European Union and United Kingdom are up just 336 Terawatt Hours (TWh).The accumulation is the lowest since 2012, and compares to a 10-year average of 443 TWh (Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory", GIE. August 14).On Aug. 12, stocks were still 170 tWh (+20% or +1.46 standard errors) above the average for the past 10 years…
Kemp: Oil investors reduce positions to a record low amid financial meltdown.
Investors reduced their positions in petroleum to the lowest levels for at least 10 years early last week as part of a general retreat from risk amid growing concerns about a global slowdown. Over the course of the week ending August 6, hedge funds and other money mangers sold 110 million barrels equivalent in six important contracts for petroleum futures and options. In each of the last five weeks, fund managers were net sellers. Their combined position has decreased by 372 million barrels from the beginning of July. By August 6, the combined position was down to 152 millions barrels.
Kemp: Oil investors reduce positions to record lows amid financial meltdown.
Investors reduced their positions in petroleum to the lowest levels for at least 10 years early last week as part of a general retreat from risk amid growing concerns about a global slowdown. Over the course of the week ending August 6, hedge funds and other money managers sold 110 million barrels equivalent in six important contracts for petroleum futures and options. In each of the last five weeks, fund managers were net sellers. Their combined position has decreased by 372 million barrels from the beginning of July. By August 6, the combined position was down to 152 millions barrels.
Kemp: Oil traders focus on economy, not dwindling stock.
The oil prices have fallen in recent weeks, as traders focus their attention on a potential slowdown of the major economies. At the end of the month of June, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) advanced economies had 2,761,000,000 barrels of crude and refined product in their commercial stocks. The stocks were 120 million barrels below the seasonal average of the past ten years (-4%, or -7.71 standard deviations), and the deficit was now 74 million barrels higher than the previous end-of-March (-3%, or -4.47 standard deviations).
Kemp: Oil traders focus on the economy, not dwindling stock
The oil prices fell in recent weeks, as traders looked past the depletion of global inventories and focused on a future threat that could be posed by the possible slowdown of major economies.At the end of the month of June, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) advanced economies had 2,761,000,000 barrels of commercial crude and refined product stocks.The stocks were 120,000,000 barrels below the seasonal average of the past ten years (-4%, or -7.71 standard deviations)…
Finance: Investors Become Super-Bullish on Oil
Portfolio investors have piled into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate since the first successful coronavirus vaccines were announced in late 2020.China’s exit from a zero-COVID strategy, along with hopes the global economy can avoid a recession and low oil inventories, have contributed to an extraordinary wave of buying across the petroleum complex.Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 232 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts over the six weeks ended Jan.
Markets: As Omicron Threat Fades, Oil Bulls Return
Portfolio investors have started to rebuild bullish positions in the oil market, reassessing earlier fears about the likely impact of the Omicron variant of coronavirus on major economies and passenger aviation in 2022.Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 54 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Dec. 28.Funds have purchased a total of 70 million barrels over the two most recent weeks, after selling 327 million over the previous 10 weeks…
Who Will Pay for the Energy Transition?
The transition from a fossil-fuel dominated energy system to one with zero emissions would require trillions of dollars of investment in new production, distribution and consumption equipment worldwide.New investments could support millions of new jobs in construction and manufacturing, but policymakers are struggling to decide whether to recover the costs from consumers or taxpayers.In most countries, the cost of providing energy commodities and services, including gas, electricity, other heating fuels…
MARKETS: Hedge Funds Sell Oil
Hedge funds have reduced their position in petroleum futures and options for the first time in 16 weeks, the first weekly net sales since the first successful coronavirus vaccine trials were announced in early November.Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 9 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Feb. 23.The sale comes after portfolio managers purchased a total of 548 million barrels over the previous 15 weeks, according to records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S.
Oil Market On Track to Rebalance Around Mid-2021
U.S. petroleum inventories have continued to converge down towards the five-year average, a sign that oil market rebalancing remains on track, despite the resurgence of the coronavirus since the end of 2020.Total stocks of crude oil and products, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve, fell by 12 million barrels last week and are down by 130 million barrels since the middle of 2020.Stocks have fallen in 24 out of the last 30 weeks, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.As a result…
Oil Market Stalls as Absence of Signals Compounds Summer Slowdown
Hedge funds' oil trading largely dried up last week as the normal summer holiday slowdown was compounded by an absence of price or fundamental signals about the future direction of the market.Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 13 million barrels in the six major petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Aug. 4, after selling 40 million the week before.Portfolio managers have left their overall position little changed since the end of June, according to an analysis of records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S.
US-China Cold War Would Redirect Energy Flows
Worsening diplomatic relations between the United States and China are putting a spotlight on their economic inter-dependency in the context of global supply chains for both technology and energy.Top policymakers in the United States and some of its closest allies, including Australia and Britain, have recently hardened the language in which they describe relations with China.China has been labelled a “strategic competitor” for some time but the country is increasingly described as a “strategic adversary” implying a more confrontational relationship.Complaints about unfair trade practices…
Oil Futures Markets Need More Transparency
Recent turbulence in the price of light sweet crude oil futures has highlighted how little is known about the positions of traders and their impact on the formation of prices.Exchanges and regulators see the positions of all members and traders on a daily basis but the information is confidential and not available to researchers even many years afterwards.The most recent comprehensive study of how individual traders’ positions evolve over time in response to prices, dates back to 1949 and was based on records from a broker that closed in the 1930s.The records…
The Numbers Tell the Story of Oil Industry Crisis
Global oil producers and refiners are struggling with a series of unprecedented dislocations as the simultaneous epidemic and volume war between Saudi Arabia and Russia rip through every element of the supply chain.Some idea of the extraordinary speed and scale of the disruptions was evident in the "Weekly Petroleum Status Report" published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.The United States is the world's largest oil consumer and producer, though it is not entirely…
As Oil Crisis Deepens, Hedge Funds Sense a Turnaround
Hedge fund managers sensed oil prices were nearing a turning point last week, and for the first time in more than two months started to add long positions in anticipation prices would bounce from an unsustainable low.Overall, hedge funds and other money managers were still net sellers of 19 million barrels of petroleum in the six most important futures and options contracts in the week ending on March 31.But they initiated 40 million barrels of new purchases as well as 59 million barrels of fresh sales, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S.
