China warns about tighter fuel and energy prices as El Nino is forecast to be moderate or stronger.

Meteorologists predict that China will have to burn fossil fuels more this year. They are predicting an El Nino weather event of moderate or greater intensity in the summer and autumn. This could disrupt the operations at hydropower plants across the region, at a time where fuel supplies from Middle East is disrupted.

According to a report published over the weekend by the China Meteorological Administration, the National Climate Centre of China expects El Nino to develop in May. The event is expected to last until the end the year.

El Nino is an unusual weather pattern that occurs when the Pacific Ocean warms up. This causes more rain to fall on the Pacific Coast of America. The shift in the Western Pacific can disrupt the East Asian monsoon and increase the chances of flooding in southern China, as well as droughts elsewhere.

In the analysis of?CMA, Wang Yaqi, a senior meteorologist, said that flooding caused by an El Nino event could damage grid infrastructure. Meanwhile, excessive rainfall or drought may force hydropower dams reduce their output or stop it altogether. El Nino has a serious impact on regions that are dependent on hydropower, Wang said.

"Reduced hydropower output often forces energy systems ?to switch to fossil-fuel generation, driving up ... the cost of energy imports ?and creating a ?vicious climate-energy-economic cycle," the government meteorologist said. China, which is the world's largest energy importer, and also the leading hydropower generator has already curtailed its fuel exports, including to Malaysia and Australia.

El Nino's increased autumn rains in China's south regions could also disrupt the late-season harvest of rice. Meanwhile, warmer winters than usual may reduce the water supply for spring ploughing next year. Reporting by Xiuhao chen and Ryan Woo, Editing by Himani sarkar and Kirsten donovan

(source: Reuters)