China's fossil fuel power generation increases in May

Official data released on Monday showed that thermal power generation, fueled primarily by coal, increased 1.2% in May compared to the same month last year. Hydropower production was also affected by a drought in some parts of China.

Data suggest that China will continue to reduce its fossil-fuel consumption this year. However, fluctuations in the generation of non-fossil energy create uncertainty.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, thermal power generation in China was 461.5 billions kWh while hydropower, China’s second largest power source, dropped 14.3% to 91.7 milliards kWh.

The thermal power generation fell by 3.1% on an annual basis from January to May, indicating that renewables, notably wind and solar, accounted for the increase in demand during the first half of the year.

Hydropower output dropped 2.5% in the first five month period, due to drought conditions in Sichuan Province and Yunnan Province, where most of China's capacity for hydropower is located.

The data revealed that the total power generation in May increased by 0.5% to 737.8 bn kWh. This was slower than the growth of 1.8% in April.

The National Bureau of Statistics tends to underestimate total generation, especially from renewables. This is because they only include companies with revenues of at least $20 million ($2.8 million) per year from their primary operations.

National Energy Administration will release more detailed data later this month.

The China Electricity Council has stated that it expects the power consumption in 2025 to increase by 6% annually, excluding global trade tensions.

Analysts say that power output and consumption grow at similar rates, although there can be differences due to transmission losses and other factors.

Greenpeace data shows that China approved more coal power generation capacity in the 1st quarter of 2025 compared to the first half 2024. This suggests the coal plant build out could accelerate. China claims its future coal fleet is a backup for renewables.

(source: Reuters)