What just happened? Ten charts that will help you understand the market in 2025
The past year will not be forgotten soon. The conventional wisdom about investor behavior and economics was often challenged in 2025 as technology, energy, and geopolitics influenced markets in unexpected ways. Here are 10 charts to help you understand what happened in the year 2025, and what that might mean for 2019.
TRADE TANTRUM
Donald Trump's?America First? agenda was a key market driver for 2025, particularly during the first half of the calendar year. The U.S. President wasted no time in delivering on his promises made in his campaign to switch from "free" trade to "fair" trading. The Baker-Bloom David model measures the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy. It reached a new high when Trump announced import tariffs for April 4, also known as "Liberation Day." The index has since lowered, but remains in a historically high?territory. It is almost twice as high as the peak of Trump's initial administration.
The average effective tariff rate for imports to the U.S. at this time last year was 2.5%. Now, it is almost 17% - the highest since 1935. It is the largest tax increase in the United States as a percentage of GDP for more than 30 year. Many were surprised to learn that the U.S. and other economies around the globe have fared well despite the massive shift in America's trading strategy. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4,3% in the third-quarter. Will businesses and consumers be as resilient in the coming year? This is still an open question.
DOLLAR'S HORRIBILIS ANNUS Wall Street analysts predicted that by 2025, the dollar would be stronger as "U.S. exceptionalism" and the Trump administration's onshoring brought in capital from all over the world.
The dollar is down around 10% compared to a basket of major currency. By the end June, the dollar was down 12%. This is the worst half-year performance of any calendar since the advent of free-floating rates over 50 years ago.
Consulting the Oracle The "Magnificent Seven" U.S. tech stocks outperformed dramatically in 2025. This was fueled by the euphoria around artificial intelligence. However, as the year progressed investor concerns increased regarding hyperscalers massive and increasingly debt-fueled AI capex expenditures. Oracle's share price reflects the trajectory of this trend. Oracle's share price performance reflects this trajectory.
If Oracle is an indicator of investor sentiment towards AI, the tech-powered equity rally could face a rough road.
'MY PRECIOUS'
The price of gold and silver has soared since 2025. This is due to the demand for safe havens and bets that interest rates will continue to fall in the U.S.
Silver reached $80 per ounce for first time on December 29. This was a result of?strong industrial demand, persistent shortages in supply, and momentum-driven purchasing. Gold prices have fallen since they reached a record high above $4,500 per ounce last Thursday, but the yellow metal is on track to achieve its largest annual gain since 1979.
It is possible that in 2026 mean reversion could cause a painful and sharp pullback.
EUROPE RELOADS
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022 and is now in its fourth year, European defense stocks are worth more than three times as much. Sector has grown by more than 50% since 2025, boosted by Germany's announcement to spend up to one trillion euros on infrastructure and defense.
This price change reflects many global themes of the year, such as increasing U.S. isolationism, rising geopolitical conflicts and expectations for an economic revival in Europe.
It also helps to explain other notable market movements in 2025, such as the rise in the euro/dollar exchange rate, the outperformance by European stocks against Wall Street, and the rising yields on long-dated German bonds.
SUPPLY SHOCKING ABSORBER The oil price jumped from $70 a barrel to $81 after Israel began a bombing attack in Iran on 12 June, causing fears that Tehran could block the Strait of Hormuz. The spike in oil prices was brief, as the "12-day conflict" ended quickly. The trend is clear: while geopolitical tensions continue to affect energy prices, price changes only occur when the supply of energy is disrupted and not just threatened. Even then, the global energy market is increasingly adaptable, which reduces the risk that a sudden event could cause a persistent imbalance in supply and demand.
The U.S. Battery Storage Market has been the most active segment of the American Energy Market in 2025. Capacity is on track to increase by a record of 12 gigawatts, to a total of approximately 40 GW. China's battery and energy storage system (BESS), exports have also reached a new record in 2025. They grew by 24% over the previous year during the first nine-month period of the year.
Storage systems at utility-scale allow power companies to better utilize renewable energy sources by storing excess solar output, which can be then?discharged' during peak demand periods. Battery storage is a trend that will continue to grow in the next year.
ASIA'S SOLAR FLAIR Asia is the leading solar power producer in the world, producing the vast majority of solar components. It also accounts for more than half of all global solar farm installations. Asia's lead in 2025 widened, with nearly 70% of global solar generation this year and a record 59% for all utility-supplied power. Asia's solar power dominance could increase over the next year, given the Trump administration's stance on renewables as well as Europe's increased focus on energy security.
Power Outage - Spain and Portugal experienced the biggest power outage in Europe history on April 28. The combination of factors, including the failure of a solar power plant and low system inertia, triggered a chain reaction that was catastrophic. Although the blackout was quickly resolved, it revealed some of the challenges that modern power grids are facing. As the AI-driven power race heats up, policymakers will likely focus on these vulnerabilities.
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(source: Reuters)
