What's at stake in Uganda’s presidential elections?

On Thursday, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is seeking to extend his four decade rule in an election which has raised questions about his eventual successor.

Although political analysts claim that Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM), his party, are almost certain to win the presidential and parliamentary election due to their stranglehold over Ugandan institutions, the outcome of the vote could have significant implications for the 'path' forward for the country.

Who are the candidates?

Museveni is seeking a seventh term as president. He came to power in 1986 at the head a revolt.

Bobi Wine is his main opponent. She is 43 years old and finished second in the election of 2021 with 35%. Bobi is very popular among young voters.

Mugisha Muntu is a former military commander who has been fighting corruption. Nandala mafabi was the leader of opposition in parliament before becoming a legislator.

What are the key issues?

Museveni's campaign slogan is "protecting gains", highlighting a relative record of?peace, stability and security.

He said that he wanted to make Uganda an income-equal country by increasing manufacturing, adding value and quality to agricultural exports like coffee and cotton.

Wine's focus has been on the restoration of political freedoms and accusing Museveni "40 years dictatorship". The government has denied claims of widespread abuses against human rights.

Wine also pledged to?stamp out corruption, boost youth employment, and review production sharing agreements with international oil companies if they don't favour Ugandan interest.

Will there be unrest?

Uganda's successive elections have been marred with violence and crackdowns against government opponents.

In response to the protests that were sparked by Wine's detention, security forces killed over 50 people in 2021.

At least one opposition supporter was killed during a campaign rally.

The violent protests by youths in Kenya and Tanzania, two neighbouring countries, over the last two years, have highlighted the dangers to government that young people face when they are frustrated with a political system which is perceived as corrupt and not responsive to their needs.

Last week, Ugandan officials announced that they would ban live broadcasts from riots, "unlawful procession" and violent incidents.

What is at stake for foreign actors?

Museveni’s Uganda is a strategic ally for Western countries. It has sent troops to combat al Shabaab in Somalia and other militants groups around the region. It is also the host of the most refugees in Africa.

The United States criticized the 2021 elections for not being free or fair, and issued visa bans to some Ugandan officials. However, Washington is unlikely comment on this year’s election after U.S. diplomatic staff were told in July to refrain from making comments on the integrity of other elections.

Museveni’s government has gained the approval of Donald Trump’s administration in the United States by signing an agreement to accept deportees who are citizens of third countries.

In recent years, Uganda has expanded its economic relations with China as well as non-Western countries such a Russia and United Arab Emirates. China National Offshore Oil Corporation, one of two leading partners in Uganda’s Lake Albert oil fields that are set to begin commercial crude production this year, is a part of China National Offshore Oil Corporation.

What else will UGANDA observers be watching?

The election results may not be a surprise, but political analysts will watch the vote to see what it means for a future succession of presidents.

Museveni's son, Muhoozi Kaineruaba, is thought by many to be in line to succeed him.

Kainerugaba, who has openly discussed his presidential ambitions and denied that Museveni is grooming his son for the next president, has fueled speculation.

Political analysts claim that Kainerugaba’s status as the heir apparent has caused controversy in the NRM, and other heavyweights of the party are positioning themselves to take Museveni’s place when he eventually leaves the scene.

Museveni’s margin of success will be an important metric. In 2021 he recorded his lowest score ever in a presidential vote with 58%. Analysts say that any further decline in his political standing could lead to a potential succession battle.

(source: Reuters)