What might Maduro have to offer Trump? What could Maduro offer Trump in potential talks?

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is in a position to use crude oil cargoes that Venezuela sells mainly to China as a bargaining tool if Venezuela decides to negotiate with the United States.

The Trump administration has increased its military presence in Caribbean and has stated that it is willing to talk to Maduro. His government has been struggling to attract foreign investment to the oilfields of Venezuela due to U.S. sanction. According to sources, the U.S. designated Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization on Monday, increasing pressure against Maduro in preparation for further operations to be launched in the near future.

CRUDE OIL LEVERAGE

Venezuela, an OPEC-member country, has stabilised its oil production at around 1.1m barrels per day in this year. This is less than a quarter of the peak it reached in the 1990s. Shipping data shows that between June and Oct., more than 80% exports went to China.

Analysts say that these cargoes and possible operating licenses to U.S. firms could be Maduro’s best leverage for any negotiations.

Thomas O'Donnell, an energy analyst, said that Maduro could easily offer to send more oil to the U.S. while protecting U.S. investments in Venezuela. The offer, however, "might be insufficient now that Washington is the dominant force," said Thomas O'Donnell, referring the current stability of the oil market and the low prices.

Delcy Rodriguez, Venezuela's oil minister, said that the U.S. is targeting Venezuela due to its vast reserves of crude.

They want Venezuela's oil reserves and gas. She said that the U.S. Gulf refining companies were demanding Venezuela's heavy crude grades for free. The U.S. produces mainly light oil. Venezuelan oil exports through PDVSA partner Chevron to the U.S. fell to half their volume in the third quarter.

VENEZUELA CAN DIVERT CARGO

The U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela in 2019 and suspended most of the state-owned oil company PDVSA’s supply contracts. This forced PDVSA to sell its oil at a large discount, forcing it to almost completely abandon the spot market.

PDVSA no longer has long-term agreements for supply, so it may divert crude cargoes destined for independent Chinese refiners towards the U.S. or Europe as part of a new political agreement.

The White House, PDVSA and the U.S. State Department have not responded to comments made by Venezuela's Oil Ministry or the U.S. State Department.

Washington has blocked PDVSA's cash payments for years, but it has a vast amount of experience in oil swaps which allow the company to trade its crude oil for fuel imports.

According to LSEG tanker data and PDVSA internal documents, Venezuelan oil exports to China increased to over 80% in the second half 2025, compared to 63% last year. This is primarily due to U.S. policy that prevents exports to alternative destinations. This leaves the option of diversifying export destinations.

More Flexible Licences

Maduro's government could also negotiate the reincorporation to Venezuela of U.S. oil licenses for foreign oil producers, as Venezuelan officials had requested. This would enable oil exports from Venezuela to the U.S.A. and Europe flow more freely.

Maduro, despite having the largest oil reserves in the world, has not allocated Venezuela's oilfields under his proposed contract model to experienced energy companies, and only attracted small investors who do not contribute significantly to the nation's production.

Western energy companies are reluctant to invest after the expropriation of foreign oil assets by the former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, and the U.S. sanction that followed. They also do not want to inject the massive amount of capital needed to revitalize Venezuela's aged energy industry. This would be a major challenge for the opposition to the government, who has offered to reform Venezuela's energy industry if they take office. Massive changes would be required to just return to production levels from two decades ago.

Trump's administration is inconsistent in its authorizations. It grants temporary licenses to certain companies, while freezing other.

(source: Reuters)