What is happening in Yemen and why are Saudi Arabian and UAE involved?
The dispute over the control of southern Yemen has brought former Gulf allies Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the Iran-backed Houthis into conflict and has fractured the coalition. Last month, the separatist Southern Transitional Council - backed by UAE - seized large swathes in southern and eastern Yemen. However, it was largely retaken from them by Saudi-backed forces. Saudi Arabian talks to settle the dispute had been scheduled for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia this week. However, STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi did not show up. The Saudis believe that he has been abducted by the UAE.
How did YEMEN end up at war? Yemen was divided into two states, one in the north with Sanaa as its capital and another in the south with Aden. This division lasted until 1990. North Yemen, which was the ancient heartland, gained its independence from the Ottoman empire. Communist South Yemen was a part of the British Empire up until the 1960s. South Yemen agreed to unify with the North after factional fighting in 1986. The Soviet Union, as the country's main financial sponsor, collapsed. The north was dominant after unification, and the south attempted to secede. This led to a short war in 1994 which the north won. In the north, the Houthi rebel group rose in the late 90s and began fighting the government for what they perceived as marginalisation of the Zaydi Shiite sect. In 2011, after Arab Spring protests, Yemen's army fell apart. Gulf countries supported a transition in Sanaa with an interim government. Houthis took Sanaa late in 2014, and the interim government fled to the south in 2015. A Saudi-led coalition intervened on their behalf in 2015 against the 'Houthis. This triggered years of civil conflict.
Who are the Southern Separatists? Many southerners feel that the north has dominated the power to their detriment. They were also angry by the Houthi's 2015 attempt to seize Aden, which damaged large parts of the city. The southern movement, which is characterized by the ubiquitous South Yemen flag in Aden and elsewhere, has been deeply divided for decades, despite its apparent popularity. The UAE gave training and support to the Southern Transitional council?in 2017, which was formed from the myriad movements. It is led by a powerful network of military and security leaders that emerged from the 2015 battle to drive the Houthis out of Aden. In 2022, it will have a formal position in the government. It will hold seats in the Presidential Council and the Cabinet. STC calls independence an aspiration shared by all southerners. Last week, it called for a two-year period of transition leading to a referendum for a new South Arabian state. Rashad al Ali, the head of the Presidential Council, has expelled Zubaidi and called him a traitor. The STC's internal cohesion has also been questioned, as some STC members are still involved in Riyadh negotiations, raising the possibility that the southern movement will fragment once more.
Why are Saudi Arabia and the UAE involved? Saudi Arabia has its longest border with Yemen, and for decades, it has sought to exert influence and deter potential threats. It also tries to stop other regional powers from gaining a foothold. It doesn't want Yemen to "break up". Saudi Arabia led the development of a Yemeni transition plan after the Arab Spring, and has been leading the offensive against the Iran-backed Houthis since 2015. Saudi Arabia's primary regional partner was the United Arab Emirates in its war against the Houthis. Since years, it has expanded its influence in the region by backing groups which it claims combat Islamists factions. It has backed Yemen's south separatists to counteract Islamist groups within the anti-Houthi coalition. It has also sought to gain access to the sea in south Yemen.
Saudi Arabia and UAE, who had been close allies for many years, have diverged over regional policy issues and other?issues. Saudi Arabia mistook the UAE's recent seizure by STC of large swathes in territory as an act of aggression. Saudi Arabia warned the UAE to withdraw its last troops. However, Emirati support of the southern movement is not waning.
WHAT DOES THIS CRISIS MEAN TO THE CIVIL YEMEN WAR? The coalition that is fighting the Houthis has been fractured by the latest crisis. Saudi-backed forces, however, have retaken most of the areas that the STC had seized in recent days. There are no obvious major changes to the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. A major resumption in that conflict would have wider implications. Yemen overlooks Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This narrow waterway connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, and is a vital maritime trade route connecting Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.
The Gaza conflict led to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. (Writing and Editing by Angus McDowall; Aided by William Maclean and Aiden Lewis)
(source: Reuters)
