Veteran Ugandan leader eyes new term amid succession talk

After a violent campaign and questions over his successor, it is expected that Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni will extend his four-decade reign in an election held on Thursday.

Museveni, a former rebel leader and former president who toppled his predecessor in 1986 is now 81 years old and faces seven opponents. He claims that another four years at the helm - his seventh term – would enable him to "protect" Uganda's relative stability and peace.

Bobi Wine is the main challenger among the seven candidates. The 43-year-old singer won 35% in the 2021 election and has inspired young voters who are angry over widespread unemployment and corrupt practices.

Political analysts claim that Museveni's dominance over the 46-million-strong East African nation is due to the fact that he has amended the constitution twice, removing age and term limitations, and removing the restrictions on the number of terms.

The election and any unrest associated with the voting will be a test of his strength as a politician at a crucial time, four years after he was accused by the United States that the last election had not been free or fair.

Uganda is an important geopolitical actor in East Africa. It has troops in Somalia as well as South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Equatorial Guinée, deployed for peacekeeping, counter-insurgency, or military cooperation.

The economic growth traditionally dependent on coffee, tourism, and agroprocessing is expected to reach double digits once crude oil production begins in the fields operated by France's TotalEnergies, and China's CNOOC, later this year.

Succeedance Speculation

Museveni has been accused of grooming his son Muhoozi Kainerugaba to succeed him, despite the fact that he denies this.

Kainerugaba has declared openly his intention to succeed his father. He is a prolific presence on social media, and often threatens violence against leaders of opposition.

Analysts say that Kainerugaba is not widely accepted as the heir apparent within the National Resistance Movement, and other heavyweights in the party are preparing themselves for Museveni to leave.

The campaign, as in previous elections, has been marred with violence. Security forces have used teargas and live ammunition at Wine's events. At least one death has occurred and hundreds of arrests.

The government has justified the actions of security forces as a response to illegal conduct by supporters of opposition.

The violent protests in Tanzania in October that resulted in hundreds of deaths, according to the United Nations, have heightened fears about unrest. Kenyan anti-government protests in the last two years, which border Uganda, were also deadly.

Timothy Kalyegira, a political analyst based in Kampala, said: "The possibility of a contagious effect on Uganda inspired by its neighbours cannot be excluded."

Wine Taps Into Dissatisfaction of Young People

A parliamentary election will take place alongside the?first round' of voting. If no candidate receives a majority, a run-off presidential election will be held in?a month's time.

Museveni, despite concerns over his human rights record has gained favour with Western countries for sending troops into regional hotspots like Somalia and accepting millions of refugees.

He has also recently gained the favor of Donald Trump, U.S. president by accepting to accept deportees from the United States who are citizens of other countries.

Sarah Rusoke is a 26 year old owner of a car-washing company. She credits Museveni for creating an "economy which?allows us start businesses and... create our footprints".

Wine, real name Robert Kyagulanyi has been able to tap into the dissatisfaction of young people in a nation where 70% of the population are under 30.

He called the vote a protest against Museveni’s “dictatorship”, and promised to clean up corruption in government if he won.

Simon Walusimbi (a 21-year old mechanic) said, "I'm inspired by his courage." "He has endured all the persecution that the government has directed at him." (Editing by Aaron Ross & Timothy Heritage)

(source: Reuters)