TurkStream gas pipeline may slow down EU-Russia decoupling

By Martin Vladimirov

May 7 - While the European Commission has announced a revised plan to wean Europe off Russian energy completely by 2027, some parts of Europe have taken the opposite approach.

The TurkStream pipeline is not only still operating, but has expanded its gas supply.

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, Russian gas exports have dropped dramatically. They went from more than 155 billion cubic meters (bcm), in 2021, to less than 40 bcm by 2024.

In the same time period, Russian LNG exports to the EU almost doubled, reaching around 25 bcm. France, Belgium Spain and the Netherlands bought over 90% of these volumes. The EU's ban on Russian LNG being transshipped via EU ports actually increased direct spot gas sales.

The new EU Roadmap should reverse this trend, as it requires member states to create detailed national plans in order to phase out Russian gas over the next two-and-a-half years. The Commission does not provide a clear legal framework to enforce these targets.

Turkstream, which stretches under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey, and then on to Southeast Europe, is responsible for the remaining exports of Russian energy giant Gazprom to the EU. TurkStream's European segment saw a 16% increase in volume year-on-year, to 4.5 billion cubic meters, during Q1 2025. This was due to increased demand from Hungary and Slovakia.

Turkstream has been able to deliver more than 63 billion cubic meters of Russian gas into the EU. This has generated over 22.72 billion euros for Gazprom and supplied gas to Greece. Bulgaria, Serbia. Romania. Moldova. North Macedonia. Bosnia. Hungary.

Hungary will be the largest importer of Russian gas in 2025. This is up from 6 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023. Slovakia, which had previously imported Russian gas through Ukraine, now imports from TurkStream. This was made possible by Hungary expanding the capacity of its cross-border transmission from 2.6 bcm/year to 3.5 bcm/year. Slovakia's gas supplier SPP confirmed in March 2025 it would extend its long-term agreement with Gazprom. The contract is valid until 2034.

Gazprom's steep discounts are the main reason for these flows. According to EU-customs data, Russian gas sold via TurkStream to EU buyers in 2024 is priced between 13-15% less than other options.

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

There are alternative gas supply options. U.S. exports of LNG will increase by 15% in 2025. This is enough to replace Russian pipelines and reduce the U.S.-EU trade deficit by up to $10 billion annually. The exports would reach LNG terminals located in Turkey, Greece and Croatia, then travel to Central and Easten Europe via interconnectors that have a capacity of over 30 bcm/year.

It is also risky to switch from one supplier, overdependence to another at a moment when the leadership of the United States is less reliable. In addition, U.S. exporters of LNG charge Europe higher prices than North American customers and require 20-25 year contracts, which clash with the EU's goals for decarbonisation.

CEE governments have opposed the phaseout, particularly Hungary and Slovakia. They claim that it would increase energy prices and reduce Europe's competitiveness. A closer look at the market differentials and financial reports of gas companies suggests that this discount on Russian gas does not go to consumers, but instead goes to Gazprom's suppliers.

The EU could immediately ban spot gas sales to encourage the diversification of supplies, as these purchases do not require modifications to long-term contracts. The EU could also bring forward the deadlines for the Roadmap to phase out all Russian imports by the end of 2025 and make this target binding.

Legal experts warn that courts may not accept this argument. It may be better to say that seismic geopolitical shifts since 2022 force companies to renegotiate their contracts or cancel them.

The European Commission's roadmap aims to avoid bottlenecks by helping to coordinate LNG imports. It also commits to strengthening the gas demand aggregate mechanism and using interconnections to reach countries that are landlocked more efficiently. The EU wants member states to be obligated to implement a certification system and traceability for gas origin. All suppliers will have to disclose where the gas is coming from and Russian gas deliveries will be banned.

TurkStream is a problem that needs to be resolved if the EU wants to truly decouple from Russian energy. To avoid over-reliance on one single power, the bloc needs to rethink its energy security. Brussels has the tools and legal authority to take action with this new roadmap, but without political will, dependence could continue.

(source: Reuters)