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The price of gasoline in Europe is rising due to concerns about Middle East tensions

September 30, 2024

Dutch and British wholesale prices of gas edged up on Monday morning due to concerns about the Middle East conflict escalation. Israel is increasing its attacks on Lebanon and Yemen. However, strong storage inventories limited further upside potential.

LSEG data show that the benchmark front-month contract for the Dutch TTF Hub was up 0.77 euros at 38.88 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh), which is $12.68 mmBtu by 0823 GMT.

The contract for November was up by 0.50 euros, at 39.15 Euro/MWh.

The front-month contract on the British market was 1,76 pence more expensive, at 39.50 cents per therm.

Israel's increased frequency of attacks on the Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi in Yemen has sparked fears that Middle East conflict could spiral out of control, attracting Iran and the United States as Israel's principal ally.

In a morning report, Auxilione, a consultancy, said that "with continued escalations of violence in the Middle East which show no sign of abating, market sentiment remains elevated and nervous."

Analysts at Engie’s EnergyScan stated that the low temperatures, slow ramp up of Norwegian LNG supplies and concern about LNG supply continue to support the market.

The report added that "additional price increases are likely, but as EU gas stocks remain comfortable, it seems the possibility of further price increases is limited."

LSEG data shows that temperatures in Northwest Europe are expected to rise slightly on Monday and then remain relatively flat throughout the rest of the week.

LSEG data shows that total exports to Norway have increased by 18 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d), reaching 224 mcm/d.

Gazprom, the Russian gas company, said that it would send 42.4 mcm of gas via Ukraine to Europe on Monday. This compares with 42.3 mcm sent on Sunday.

Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that European storages are currently 94,18% full.

The benchmark EU carbon permit contract increased by 0.09 euros to 66.42 euro per metric tonne.

(source: Reuters)

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