Strategie Grains: Dry weather affects EU rapeseed crops outlook

The Consultancy Strategie Grains reduced its monthly forecast of the next European Union rapeseed crop by a large amount on Friday, citing the dry weather that has affected parts of the EU. However, it still expects a recovery from last year's production which was hampered by rain.

The company projected that the EU rapeseed production in 2025/26 would be 18.6 million tons, down from the 19.0 million predicted at late April but still nearly 11% higher than 2024/25.

Strategie Grains summarized a monthly oilseeds report and said that "Rapeseed Production in 2025/26 in the EU has been sharply revised down, as dry weather conditions prevail in some countries."

This spring, a large part of northern Europe including major rapeseed producing countries France, Germany, and Poland experienced extremely low rainfall, raising concerns that certain crops may suffer during crucial yield-determining stages.

Strategie Grains stated that the reduced outlook for EU crops could lead to a continued shortage of grain in Canada and a tightening global market.

The consultancy said that a wave of shipments into China ahead of an anti-dumping investigation by China on Canadian canola, a variety rapeseed, and the drought-disrupted plantation of Canada's next harvest have raised concerns about supply and supported the price rally in this month.

Strategie Grains has also reduced its forecasts for sunflower seed and soya bean production in 2025/26.

The EU sunflower seed harvest for 2024/25 is estimated at 10,4 million tons, up from 10.5 million the previous month. This is still 22% more than last year's drought-hit EU harvest.

The soybean crop is expected to be stable at 3,0 million tons, compared with the previous 3.1 million.

(source: Reuters)