StoneX estimates that Brazil's center-south sugar production in 2025/26 will be 40.16 million metric tons.

StoneX, a consultancy, said that the sugar production in Brazil’s center-south region is expected to reach 40.16 millions metric tons during 2025/26. The heavy rains of June affected both the cane crushing volume and crop quality.

StoneX predicted in May that the sugar production for the season will reach 41.8 million tonnes in the region.

StoneX stated that despite the downward revision, sugar production will remain almost flat in comparison to the previous year. This is due to a greater share of cane going to sugar and less to ethanol.

StoneX analyst Marcelo Di Bonifacio filho said that there was a significant change of 10 million tons for cane crushing.

StoneX estimates that the total amount of cane crushed in 2025/26 will be 598.8 millions tons, a decrease of 3.7% compared to last year. Rainfall reduced the amount of Total Recoverable sugars in the cane. This further affected the sugar production.

This season the sugar mix will be higher than 51%, up from 48.1% in last season.

Sugarcane ethanol is expected to drop 12.4%, to 23.5 billions liters. Total ethanol production, including corn-based, is projected to fall about 5%, to 33.3 billion.

The production of corn ethanol is expected to increase by nearly 20% on an annual basis, to 9,8 billion liters.

(source: Reuters)