Russell: COP30 agreement is not important in the battle between renewables and fossil fuels.

It was not realistic to expect anything better from the COP30 Climate Summit than a weak statement that omitted all mention of fossil fuels.

It was never going to be easy to bring nearly 200 countries together with vastly different perspectives and make a statement of commitment to fight climate change.

After the Belem summit, the question that needs to be asked is, does what the final statement says and doesn't state, really matter?

Imagine that environmentalists have won their case with a communique that makes firm commitments for the phase-out of fossil fuels within a time frame that meets ambitious climate targets.

What would this mean for major crude oil exporters and producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia?

These countries would decide to reduce their investments in fossil fuels, and instead focus on building renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and battery storage.

Even a bold declaration on climate targets is unlikely to change the plans and behaviour of major fossil fuel producers.

It makes sense to them to use fossil fuels for both domestic and export purposes.

The COP30 Summit confirmed that energy transition is becoming increasingly divided between countries who rely on fossil energy for their domestic energy needs and export revenues, and those who are trying to stop reliance on fossil energy by electrifying systems and using renewables.

The agreement to triple climate financing for developing countries by 2035 is more important than any mention of fossil-fuels in the COP30 declaration.

Details of where the money will come from and for what projects are yet to be determined, but it is clear that there will be more investment in energy transition and that it will be concentrated mainly in countries that fossil fuel lobbyists are trying to convert to their cause.

CHINA'S EXPORTS OF CLEAN ENERGY SOARING TECHNOLOGY

In the next few years, there is likely to be a fight for the future energy of many developing countries.

The United States, for example, will use trade tariffs and access to influence countries to purchase liquefied gas (LNG).

China will use its huge cost advantage with renewable technologies to offer cheaper electricity solutions, which don't rely on volatile fossil fuel imports.

According to research consultancy Ember, China's clean energy exports are booming and reached a record of $20 billion last August.

Ember reported in a recent report that the value of China's electric vehicle exports has increased by 26% from the same time period last year.

The value of grid components and wind increased by 22%, but the export value of solar panels fell 19%.

Ember said that the drop in value was more due to falling panel prices than a drop in volume. Exports reached 46 gigawatts of capacity in August. This is a record and exceeds the installed solar capacity in Australia.

It will be difficult for fossil fuel exporters in the world to compete if China maintains, or lowers prices for its clean-energy products.

The phrase "money talks and everything else walks" is relevant to the energy shift.

The system that offers the most reliable and affordable source of energy will win out in the end.

The fossil fuel industry will continue to exist as long as it can compete with renewable energy sources. However, the exact length of time will differ from one country to another.

The cost of mining and transporting coal in India and China will keep it competitive for many decades.

Coal is expected to lose ground in countries that import it, such as Japan or South Korea. These countries are unlikely to build any new coal plants in order to replace their ageing fleets because renewable alternatives not only emit less but are also cheaper.

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The author is a columnist at. (Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman).

(source: Reuters)