Pakistan claims rooftop solar production will exceed grid demand at some hubs in the next few years
Next year, rooftop solar power generation in Pakistan will surpass the electrical grid's daytime demand for the first ever time. This will be the case in major industrial areas.
The outlook reflects the record growth in solar panel installations that occurred in recent years. This boom has resulted in lower emissions, and for some, reduced electricity bills. However it has also caused financial problems for utilities with high debts due to the prolonged decline in grid-based electricty demand.
Aisha Morani, Secretary of Pakistan's Climate Change Ministry said that Pakistan will have a negative grid-linked consumption during certain daylight hours as the behind-the meter solar power is completely offsetting the grid demand. This was revealed on the sidelines the COP30 climate summit in Brazil.
Pakistan is one of the first emerging markets to have rooftop generation exceed grid-linked consumption in large areas for long periods.
She said that "negative demand" will likely be seen in Lahore (northwest Pakistan), which has the highest solar penetration rate, followed by Faisalabad, Sialkot and Faisalabad, where industrial areas drive solar adoption.
Pakistan, with its 250 million residents, has been prompted by power cuts and tariff increases to adopt solar energy. It is now the third largest panel importer in the world and solar generation exceeds that of China.
Moriani said that the south Asian nation would experience more negative demand events, particularly during sunny summer afternoons, holidays, and days of moderate temperatures with high solar output.
She said that the challenge for Pakistan is not whether or not renewable energy will increase, but how quickly grids, regulations, and market designs can keep up.
She said that the south Asian nation plans to introduce new tariffs and fee structures for large solar users as well as changes in fee structure to ensure businesses with panel share equal costs of grid maintenance.
This year, Pakistan's grid-connected power demand will grow slower than average. Moriani says that next year consumption will rise even more, but it could be more affected by increased solar usage.
Moriani stated that the surge in solar energy has also led Pakistan to renegotiate their LNG contracts with its top supplier Qatar, and cancel cargoes provided by Italy's Eni.
She said that Pakistan was looking for lower prices and flexible delivery schedules as well as a possible reduction in cargoes.
She said that while there were no formal talks with Qatar at COP30 "the event provided diplomatic space for engagement" with energy ministers, commercial representatives and others.
The key objective is to align Pakistani gas import strategy according to fiscal space, demand forecast, and seasonal patterns. Pakistan is looking for stability and affordability, rather than an increase in LNG dependence. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Sudarshan Varadan).
(source: Reuters)
