OPEC trims supply for 2026, despite a strong second half of the world economy in 2025

OPEC stated on Monday that it expects the global economy to be resilient in the second part of this year despite trade conflict concerns. It also lowered its forecasts for the growth in oil production from producers outside the broader OPEC+ in 2026.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in a report released monthly left unchanged its forecasts of global oil demand growth in 2025 and in 2026 after reducing them in April. They said the outlook for the economy was strong despite concerns about trade.

OPEC's report stated that the global economy had outperformed the expectations in the first half 2025.

This strong base of the first half 2025 will provide sufficient support and momentum to a solid second half 2025. The growth trend will moderate on a quarterly level.

OPEC said that supply from countries outside of the Declaration of Cooperation – the formal name of OPEC+ – will increase by approximately 730,000 barrels per daily in 2026. This is down 70,000 bpd compared to last month's prediction.

A lower growth in supply outside OPEC+ (which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other allies) would make it easier to balance the market. In recent years, the rapid growth of U.S. shale oil and other countries has put pressure on prices. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Matarise, Emelia Lawler)

(source: Reuters)