OPEC lowers its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026

OPEC has lowered its projection for the world's oil demand in 2026, to 970,000 barrels a day. This is the second consecutive downward revision. The group has seen a lesser impact on consumption than other forecasters, such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration or the International Energy Agency. OPEC predicted that consumption would increase later, and increased its forecast of demand growth for 2027. The war has closed the Strait of Hormuz - one of the most important oil routes in the world - effectively, and millions of barrels of Middle East production have been slowed. Fuel prices are soaring around the world, affecting consumers and businesses alike.

Compared to the previous forecast, the current estimate has reduced?expected growth in oil demand this year by 1.17 million barrels a day. OPEC predicts that oil demand will rise by 1,73 million barrels per day in 2027. This is an increase of 190,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate. "Global economic performance has remained resilient in the first half 2026, despite geopolitical tensions," OPEC stated in a report. Its economic growth predictions remained unchanged.

Both the EIA and IEA expect that oil demand will decline this year due to the?war.

OPEC+ (which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as allies such Russia) had agreed to resume production increases in April. However, the closure of Hormuz made it impossible for production to be increased. The report stated that output dropped further in May. The report cited secondary sources that OPEC uses for'monitoring its production. Iran recorded the largest?drop. Tanker data indicates that the country's exports fell sharply in may due to an American blockade. The United Arab Emirates is included in the May figure, as they left OPEC+ and OPEC on May 1. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janowowski; Alex Lawler)

(source: Reuters)