OPEC+ discusses oil production boost as US war against Iran disrupts shipments
Two OPEC+ source said that OPEC+ would consider a bigger-than-expected 'oil production increase' on Sunday. This is after the U.S. and Israel war against OPEC+ Member Iran, as well as Tehran's retaliation caused?shipment disruptions throughout?the Middle East.
OPEC+ is known for boosting oil production to compensate for disruptions, but analysts say the group has little capacity left to add meaningfully to the supply. The exceptions are Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.
Riyadh increased oil production and exports during the last few weeks to prepare for U.S. Sources have confirmed that the U.S. is planning to strike Iran.
Since Saturday, oil, gas and other shipments to the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz are halted after shipowners were warned by?Iran that the area is closed for navigation.
Sources have told us that OPEC+ is expected to discuss a production increase of at least 411,000 barrels per a day (bpd) on Sunday. This was higher than the initial expectations - 137,000 bpd.
On Friday, oil prices rose to $73 per barrel, their highest level since July. This was due to fears of an expanded conflict in the Middle East, and disruptions to oil supply through Hormuz. Hormuz is the world's largest oil route, accounting for over 20% of the global oil transit.
Helima Croft, an OPEC veteran analyst at RBC, warned Washington that a conflict with Iran could cause oil prices to?jump to over $100 per barrel. Barclays analysts also predicted that oil prices could reach $100.
Croft stated that?the impact of any significant OPEC increase on the market will be limited because?of a lack of actual production capability outside Saudi Arabia.
The meeting will begin at 1100 GMT on Sunday and only eight OPEC+ members will be present - Saudi Arabia and Russia. OPEC+ is a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia. However, the majority of production changes?over the past few years were made by the eight members.
The eight members raised their production quotas from April to December 2025 by approximately 2.9 million bpd, or roughly 3% global demand. They then paused increases between January and March 2026 because of seasonal weakness. (Written by Dmitry Zhdannikov, edited by Emelia Sithole Matarise)
(source: Reuters)
