Norwegians choose new parliament after a closely contested election clouded with geopolitical anxiety

Norwegians will head to the polls to elect a new Parliament on Sunday and Monday. It is a tight race between the left-wing Labour Party, which has been in power for many years, and the right-wing Progress Party and Conservatives.

According to the average of polls taken this month by pollofpolls.no, centre-left parties Labour, Socialist Left and Communists are expected to win 87 seats. This is just two seats more than what's needed for a majority.

The election campaign has focused on the cost of living and taxation, as well as the public services. The outcome may have a significant impact on the energy and power supply to Europe, and how Norway manages its $2 trillion sovereign fund.

Geopolitics also played a large role in the election this year, analysts say. This could be a boon for Labour, particularly its leader, former foreign minister Jonas Gahr Stoere.

"The Labour Party is really benefiting from a rally-around-the-government effect, given the sort of unstable international situation, and also has a good reputation for taking care of Norway's economy," Johannes Bergh, head of the national election studies programme at the Oslo-based Institute for Social Research, told .

Norway, with a population of 5.6 millions and an export-oriented economic system that shares a border with Russia on the Arctic coast, has been particularly anxious about Donald Trump's return to power and Russia's conflict in Ukraine.

According to a recent survey conducted by the Peace Research Institute Oslo, 59% of Norwegians think a new conflict in Europe will occur within the next decade. This is up from 55% the previous year.

The Labour Party has also been given a boost by Stoere’s decision to bring former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg back as Finance Minister in February. This move was dubbed “Stoltenback” in Norwegian media. Stoltenberg is Stoere's friend and ally and has served as Norway's prime minister for three terms.

This month's poll ofpolls shows that Labour has won around 26.5%. No average was shown, but it would be the largest party.

DIVIDED RIGHT

The Conservatives of former Prime Minister Erna Soberg, who are in the right-wing camp have been campaigning for reforms to the public sector and abolition of Norway's wealth taxes, which, they claim, unfairly target business ownership.

As in other Western countries some voters are increasingly choosing populist right-wing alternatives. Sylvi Listhaug’s Progress Party currently polls around 22%, comfortably ahead of Conservatives with 14.5%.

Jonas Stein is an associate professor of political science at University of Tromsoe. He said that Listhaug has "identified what you might call the zeitgeist surrounding public overspending" and has returned to the more libertarian roots of the Progress Party. The Progress Party has always been critical of government spending and has advocated lower taxes.

The tightness of the race could determine the outcome, as it will depend on the performance by the smaller parties. These are the Greens, Socialist Left, Communists, Liberals and Christian Democrats.

This could also lead to a greater influence on voters who have specific concerns, such as the Gaza war or climate change.

In August, the Israeli investment of Norway's sovereign fund dominated the campaigning. However, one poll indicates that the Greens are now gaining support, with a 7.1% increase.

Bergh said that "just minor changes between now and election day can determine the outcome of an election."

(source: Reuters)