US Natural Gas Futures Rise Alongside LNG Export Demand
© Adobe Stock/Evgenii Bakhchev
U.S. natural gas futures rose 4% on Tuesday, boosted by record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for more demand than previously expected over the next two weeks.
Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 15.3 cents, or 4%, at $4.105 per million British thermal units by 08:59 AM ET. Priced ended 0.5% lower on Monday.
"The demand for LNG is very strong and they're keeping those numbers near record high. So, that's definitely supporting the market right now," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants have risen to 18.5 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.
INCREASED PROCESSING AT LNG EXPORT PLANTS
On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to 18.6 bcfd on Tuesday from an average of 18.1 bcfd last week due to increases at facilities including Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana, Freeport LNG's 2.2-bcfd plant in Texas and Venture Global's 1.6-bcfd Calcasieu plant.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 127.9 bcfd this week to 136.0 bcfd over the next two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Meanwhile, meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through January 7, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.
"We saw the significant sell off due to the warm up that we're experiencing right now. But, as we go to later January, the weather models are turning colder again and that's causing some short covering," Flynn said.
Financial firm LSEG said average natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states climbed to a record high of 111.1 billion cubic feet per day in December, surpassing November's monthly record of 109.6 bcfd.
The Trump administration suspended leases on Monday for five large offshore wind projects that are under construction off the U.S. East Coast over what it called national security concerns. Suspending offshore wind projects reduces expected renewable generation, which means power grids would likely rely more on natural gas for electricity.
Dutch and British gas contracts fell earlier on Tuesday, with some weather forecasts indicating a potentially quicker end to a cold spell, and as supply remains stable.
Meanwhile, Myanmar is expected to resume liquefied natural gas imports next year after taking delivery of half a cargo last month, ending a more than four-year hiatus in shipments, data and analytics firm Kpler said.
Week ended Dec 19 Forecast | Week ended Dec 12 Actual | Year ago Dec 19 | Five-year average Dec 19 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -172 | -167 | -98 | -110 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,407 | 3,579 | 3,542 | 3,437 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -0.8% | +0.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub <NGc1> | 4.11 | 3.94 | 3.41 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1> | 9.47 | N/A | 13.83 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1> | 9.59 | 9.67 | 14.34 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 358 | 349 | 378 | 426 | 447 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 7 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 365 | 356 | 386 | 430 | 450 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.3 | 111.1 | 110.7 | N/A | 99.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.4 | 9.7 | 9.9 | N/A | 8.9 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | N/A | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 119.8 | 120.9 | 120.6 | N/A | 108.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.0 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 | N/A | 12.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 17.9 | 14.3 | 16.3 | N/A | 14.9 |
U.S. Residential | 30.3 | 22.9 | 27.1 | N/A | 24.2 |
U.S. Power Plant | 34.9 | 29.2 | 30.4 | N/A | 33.6 |
U.S. Industrial | 26.1 | 24.7 | 25.2 | N/A | 25.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | N/A | 5.7 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.9 | N/A | 4.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | N/A | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 117.8 | 99.4 | 107.4 | N/A | 108.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 145.3 | 127.9 | 136.0 | N/A | 129.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 100 | 101 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 100 | 101 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 105 | 105 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Dec 26 | Week ended Dec 19 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 17 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 33 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> | 3.67 | 3.58 | 3.02 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> | 3.31 | 3.59 | 3.31 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> | 2.58 | 2.63 | 3.42 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> | 2.83 | 3.07 | 2.70 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> | 2.96 | 3.20 | 2.82 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> | 7.5 | 9.16 | 8.16 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> | 3.09 | 3.09 | 3.54 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> | -1.25 | -0.57 | 2.28 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> | 2.68 | N/A | 1.26 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX> | 84 | 126.13 | 85.01 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West <E-NEPLMHP-IDX> | 46.98 | 63.52 | 43.03 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C <W-MIDCP-IDX> | 23.97 | 25.93 | 42.33 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX> | 24 | 25.68 | 32.02 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 <W-SP15-IDX> | 37.78 | 37.05 | 39.19 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
(Reuters)
