Maguire: Clean energy push in Australia reaches pivotal milestone for energy transition

Last month, Australian utilities produced more electricity using clean energy sources than fossil fuels. This was a first for one of the top coal and natural gas exporters in the world.

Data from the energy think tank Ember show that in October, utility-supplied electricity from clean sources reached 9.88 terawatts hours (TWh), which was higher than the 9.82 TWh produced by fossil fuels.

The breakthrough in the energy mix is a result of a 77% increase in Australia's clean electricity output compared to five years ago as well as a reduction of 15% in fossil fuel consumption over that time period.

The generation of coal-fired electricity, which is Australia's biggest source of electricity, also reached record lows in the last month. This has helped to reduce power sector carbon dioxide emission by 13.5 millions metric tons so far this season compared to one year ago.

Australia's clean-generation levels are expected to continue rising over the summer in the southern hemisphere, which could help establish 2025 as the critical threshold at which clean energy production Down Under will first surpass fossil fuels.

CLEAN MOMENTUM GROWS

Ember data indicates that the main driver behind Australia's clean energy surge was a 99% rise in clean power production capacity between 2019-2024. This went from 32 gigawatts to 63.5 GW.

This capacity increase is comparable to a global 65% growth in clean capacity over the same time period. It has set the scene for rapid growth of Australian clean electricity flows this decade.

Since 2020, the Australian clean electricity generated by utilities has increased on average 13% per year. This is more than twice as fast as the global average for that time period.

This outsized growth rate has allowed Australia, which was a notable energy transformation laggard up until a decade back, to catch up with peer nations when it comes to the share of clean electricity in production.

In 2015, Australia supplied only 14% (less than half) of its electricity from clean sources. This was well below both the Asia-wide and global averages of 33.5%.

By the end of 2024 however, Australia had surpassed the Asian average (34%) to reach a share of 35.1%, narrowing the gap with the global average (41%).

BATTERY BACKED SOLAR POWERED SYSTEM

Solar electricity production has grown by 21% annually on average in Australia since the early 2000s, mainly due to massive utility-scale solar farms.

Solar power is Australia's second largest electricity source, behind coal.

According to Rystad Energy, the rapid growth of battery energy storage systems for utilities has allowed utilities to harness the solar output in the country to its best advantage. The country is ranked third in the world in terms BESS capacity.

Solar plus batteries allows utilities to store excess solar power during the sunniest times of the day and dispatch it when electricity demand peaks early in the evening.

COAL CUTS

Australian utilities have intensified the effect of rapid growth in clean generation by simultaneously reducing fossil fuel production.

In 2025, fossil fuels will account for less that 60% of Australia's electricity supplied by utilities.

To achieve this, coal and gas fired power production has been drastically reduced since 2019. Coal-fired energy production dropped by 16% over the same period, while gas-fired electricity production fell by 36%. Total fossil fuel-fired energy production also decreased by 19%.

Solar's peak season is expected to push coal's share down below 50% in the next few months.

In October, coal-fired power plants accounted for only 44% (out of Australia's total electricity)

The generation share is expected to plummet to new lows in December, as solar farms and batteries reach their annual production highs and utilities reduce the generation from fossil-fuel plants to minimum levels.

This means that the clean power mix will continue to break records for the next few month in terms of its share of the electricity mix used by utilities, accelerating Australia's momentum towards energy transition into 2026.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)