Karen Braun: Weather, war and low prices will cloud the outlook for US corn in 2026.
After last year's record-breaking crop, U.S. farmers are now back in the fields, planting corn for?2026. However, this time, they have a completely different setup.
Early estimates indicate that corn plantings will be higher than normal, but the U.S. production of corn is likely to fall short of last year's record-breaking crop.
Even if the world's largest exporter produces a record crop, it is not necessary to have another one in order to maintain a healthy balance sheet. Even small changes in U.S. policy could have greater impact than usual as global competition intensifies, especially from Brazil and China.
Here are the major factors that will influence?U.S. This unique set of circumstances will affect corn production in 2026.
SOYBEANS - A VERY COSTLY INPUTS - VIE FOR ACRES
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's last-month area survey set the bar high for corn plantings in 2026 at 95,3 million acres (38.6 millions hectares). This is about a million more than the expectations of the trade and also higher than the average of the past five years of 93,000,000.
Corn prices are already falling, which has reduced farmers' profits. The U.S./Israeli war against Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a spike in energy and fertilizer costs. Tensions were high at the beginning of USDA's survey period, which could have muddied the outlook for acreage.
Last week, U.S. Farmers needed 154 bushels to cover the cost per ton of urea - a nitrogen fertilizer that is heavily imported. This is one of the steepest price-to-value ratios in recent years, particularly at this time of year.
Fuel prices are skyrocketing. Last week, retail diesel in the U.S. Midwest hit $5.38 a gallon. This is the highest price since July 2022, and almost 50% higher than the level of last October when many farmers started planning for 2026.
While many producers secure inputs well in advance of planting, others are still exposed to price and availability uncertainty. The producers could choose to plant less input-intensive beans, which are now competitive with corn in terms of returns.
Farmers usually stick to their initial plans for corn planting unless the weather is a major factor. In 14 of the 20 years since USDA's survey in June, corn acres have exceeded expectations in March.
In the past, extreme economic volatility, like during the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020, has led U.S. corn producers to reduce corn plantings. Will this year's economic turmoil be enough to cut corn plantings?
SOGGY SPRING AND EL NINO
Corn planting hasn't been affected by widespread delays despite the fact that some parts of central U.S. were much?wetter this month than usual. It's still very early. According to the USDA Crop Progress report, as of April 19, 11% of corn had been planted. This is the same as last year, and above the 5-year average of only 9%.
The central Corn Belt is expected to be a bit wet through the month, but that could not hinder progress if rain breaks are enough. By May 1, the average amount of corn planted in the U.S. is 30%. This marks the beginning of the busiest time for planting.
El Nino could be in full force mid-summer as U.S. Corn enters its pollination period and grain filling phase. This weather pattern, however, is not usually associated with poor U.S. Corn crops.
Yield: A DIFFICULT ACT TO FOLLOW
The U.S. yield of corn reached a record high 186.5 bushels/acre in 2025. This was the highest yield in seven years, and exceeded USDA's trendline in early season. It was 4% higher than the previous record, which is comparable to the 2014 increase.
The USDA has tentatively set the 2026 trend at 183 bpa. This would be its highest volume ever recorded, but a modest rise from current trends.
Even at these lofty levels, yield is still sensitive. According to USDA's most recent area forecast, each bushel that goes up or down is equivalent to 87 million bushels. A 5-bushel swing in yield, for instance, could shift production by more than 20% if ending stocks are projected to be 2 billion bushels.
These bumper projections are likely to be met for many reasons, since last year's record yield did not reflect the full potential of the country. The Corn Belt in the west and north of the country has seen the most growth, while Iowa and Illinois have fallen short.
CAN FUNDING STAY OPTIMISTIC?
By mid-month large speculators held a net long position in Chicago Corn, but the bullishness had?faded, as initial war anxieties have eased. Funds have placed large short bets in the last week for the first three months. This could indicate a change in sentiment.
The market is still vulnerable to selling if U.S. planting increases, particularly if funds remain bullish. A fast planting pace will limit concerns about early yields and increase confidence in the planned corn acres.
There are many factors that can affect grain markets, including the meeting next month between?U.S. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, the Chinese president.
The current highs of the expiration year for Chicago new-crop soybean and corn futures are $4.98-1/2 per bushel and $11.74-1/4 respectively. Corn was nearly 4% lower on Monday and soybeans more than 1% below.
March highs, however, are not common. Last time November soybeans posted a high was in 2004. December corn did it in 1999. New-crop corn and soybeans never reached their peak in the same March since 1973.
Will 2026 be the exception?
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(source: Reuters)
