US intelligence warns Iran is unlikely to ease its chokehold on the Hormuz Strait soon, according to sources

According to three sources familiar with the issue, recent U.S. Intelligence reports have warned that Iran is unlikely to open up the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon as its grip on this world's most important oil artery gives it the only leverage?it can exert over the United States.

This finding indicates that Tehran may continue to throttle the "strait" to keep energy prices high in order to pressure U.S. president Donald Trump into finding a quick exit from the war, which has lasted for nearly five weeks and is unpopular among U.S. citizens. These reports are the latest evidence that the war intended to eliminate Iran's military might may have the opposite effect, by showing Tehran's capability to threaten the main waterway. Trump has tried to minimize the difficulties of reopening Strait of Hormuz which is responsible for a fifth of world oil trade. He appeared to suggest on Friday that he might be able to order U.S. troops to reopen this passage.

He posted the following on his Truth Social platform: "With just a little bit more time we could easily OPEN THE HORMUIZ STRAIT TAKE THE OIL &?MAKE A FAVORITE."

Analysts have warned for years that using force against Iran which controls the other side of the Strait could be costly and drag the U.S. in a long-term?ground conflict.

In an effort to stop Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction, they handed Iran a tool of mass disruption, said Ali Vaez. He is the director of the Iran Project for the International Crisis Group.

Tehran, Vaez said, understood its ability to control world energy markets by its chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz "is more powerful than a nuclear bomb."

Trump's position on the possibility of U.S. involvement has changed. He has on the one hand made ending Iran's chokehold as a ceasefire?precondition but then called upon Gulf oil-dependent nations and NATO allies take the lead to reopen it.

An anonymous White House official said that Trump was "confident" that the strait would be "open very soon", and that Iran wouldn't be allowed to regulate the waterway traffic following the war.

The official also noted that Trump has stated that other countries have "far more at stake" in preventing a negative outcome than the U.S.

The CIA didn't immediately respond to a comment request.

IRAN BLOCKING SEA TRAFFIC Since Trump and Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu began their war on 28 February, Iran's outgunned Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have used various tactics to make the commercial transit of the waterway uninsurable or too dangerous. Iran has blocked the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, releasing mines, attacking civilian vessels, and demanding passage fees. This has sent world oil prices to multi-year heights, and caused fuel shortages for countries that rely on Gulf oil and natural gas. The rising cost of energy could fuel inflation in the United States, which would be a major political liability for Trump who is facing dismal poll results and preparing for November's mid-term elections.

According to three sources, recent intelligence reports indicate that Iran is unlikely to give up its leverage anytime soon. The sources declined to specify which agencies made the assessments.

One of the sources said, "It's certain that Iran won't give up its leverage and power over the Strait now that it has tasted it." The three sources requested anonymity to discuss the intelligence reports.

A?MILITARY OPERATION RISKS Many experts believe that a military action to reopen a waterway carries significant risks. The waterway is the only thing that separates Iran from Oman. The waterway is narrowest at 21 miles (33 kilometers) but only 2 miles (3km) wide both in directions. This makes it easy for ships and troops to be targeted.

Experts say that even if U.S. troops seize the islands and coast of southern Iran, the IRGC can attack and control the waterway using drones and'missiles' launched from inside Iran.

Vaez said that one or two drones are all it takes to stop traffic and prevent vessels from passing.

Experts say that Iran will not give up its ability?to regulate traffic through the strait even after the war because it needs to rebuild and charging a fee for commercial shipping would be a way to raise reconstruction funds. Bill Burns, former CIA director and Foreign Affairs magazine podcast host, said that Tehran would "look to maintain the leverage they have rediscovered" by disrupting the strait's traffic.

Iran will use its ability of throttling the waterway in order to get "long-term security guarantees" and "long-term deterrence" as part of any peace agreement with the U.S., and also to gain "direct material benefits", such as charging passage fees for its post-war reconstruction.

He said that "that" sets up a very difficult negotiation at the moment. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Landay and Erin Banco; Don Durfee, David Gaffen, and David Gaffen).

(source: Reuters)