Grid operators claim that the UK's winter energy is secure, despite lower gas margins.

In their winter outlooks, the electricity and gas grid operators in Britain expect that there will be enough energy this winter despite tighter margins for gas due to declining production at home.

National Gas and Britain's National Energy System Operator publish annual reports on the supply and demand of gas and electricity for the coming winter in order to assist businesses and governments prepare.

In its winter outlook, Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen said that only a few events, such as a cold winter in the UK accompanied by a major disruption to supply, could pose a risk to our electricity or gas systems.

Gas plants provide more than a quarter (25%) of Britain's electrical supply, and most homes in the country are heated with the fuel.

National Gas expects to be able to supply enough gas for the winter. However, the margin of supply is smaller than in the past four years because the UK continental shelf has been shrinking and storage space has decreased.

Bryn Jacobsen said that the energy landscape was changing, and there is a growing dependence on imports.

The overall gas demand will be 3% less than last winter. This is mainly because of the reduced demand in the power sector as renewable energy output increases.

National Gas reported that peak day gas demand is expected to be 482 mcm/d this winter, compared with a maximum supply capacity of only 565 mcm/d.

HIGH ELECTRICITY MARGINS

The outlook for winter electricity in Britain is also stable.

The NESO predicts a derated margin – excess capacity over peak demand – of 6.1 gigawatts for winter 2025/26. This is equivalent to 10% peak average cold-spell demand, and it's the highest since winter 2019/20.

The outlook stated that the increase was due to an increase in battery storage capacity, increased availability of gas plants, and a greater interconnection with Europe following the Greenlink power connection between Britain and Ireland.

NESO warned that there will still be days of tight supply and that electricity prices in the coming period would be influenced by gas markets.

The NESO forecast said that "slightly lower European stock levels heading into winter could lead to a higher requirement for liquefied gas (LNG), which in turn would affect gas prices and power prices during a harsh winter."

(source: Reuters)