As gas prices fall, forward-curve contracts also fall.

Early trading on Monday saw European forward-curve electricity contracts fall, following lower benchmark gas contracts.

At 0952 GMT the German baseload price was down 1.9% to 76.95 Euros per Megawatt-hour, while in France it fell 1% to 50.10 Euros/MWh.

The benchmark contract on the European carbon market rose by 0.4%, to 70.99 Euros per metric ton.

Dutch and British wholesale contracts for gas fell on Monday, with the Dutch reference price reaching a two-month high in early trade on the back of milder weather forecasts, and stable supply.

Analysts from Engie’s EnergyScan stated that carbon prices continued to decline on Friday. Last week was the steepest drop since January 2024, and they closed at levels last summer.

"Sentiment has turned decisively negative and reached levels that have not been seen for a long while. Price action is still largely driven by headlines, rather than fundamentals." Analysts said that the key question is now how long this risk-off sentiment will last.

LSEG data shows that the French baseload day-ahead power contract is now at 41 euros/MWh. This represents a 238.8% increase from the Friday price for Monday deliveries.

LSEG data showed that the equivalent German contract with an asking price of 102.50 Euros was not traded. LSEG's compilation shows gaps in German day-ahead prices data for recent sessions.

LSEG data revealed that German wind power production is projected to fall?by 12.7 GW on Monday, to 15.3 GW. French wind power generation is expected to fall?by 7.4 GW to a total of 10.4 GW.

LSEG data shows that power consumption in Germany will rise 4.8 GW this Monday to 63.5 GW. In France, demand is expected to increase 2.6 GW from 62.2 GW.

LSEG analyst Riccardo Paraviero said that Tuesday's outlook was bullish, as German residual load will?increase sharply due?to a combination of a rise in consumption and a decrease in wind energy supplies.

The French nuclear energy availability is flat at 90%. (Reporting and editing by Eileen Soreng; Forrest Crellin)

(source: Reuters)