EUROPE GAS - European prices stable in a new lower range
The Dutch and British contracts for gas were slightly weaker Thursday, but they remained at 18-month lows, hit earlier in the week, due to milder weather and abundant supply, as well as hopes of a Ukraine Peace Deal. However, some winter risks still remain.
LSEG data shows that the benchmark Dutch front-month contract was 29.05 euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh) or $9.86/mmBtu at 0925 GMT. This is a decrease of 0.20 euros.
Tuesday's contract reached its lowest intraday price of 29 euros/MWh, its lowest since May 2024.
The Dutch day-ahead contracts was flat at 29,15 euros/MWh.
The British gas day-ahead price fell 0.90 pence to 75.10 pence a therm.
Karsten Sander-Nielsen, Mind Energy's senior analyst, said: "As the forecasts continue to be mild, the market will continue to slide as we move through the heating season with no major consumption issues."
A ceasefire between Russia, Ukraine and other countries would also be a positive.
The market has fully priced more U.S. gas supply and the possibility of Russian gas indirectly increasing global availability if United States eases its sanctions, said Arne L. Rasmussen. Chief analyst at Global Risk Management.
He added that the latter would not manifest in renewed EU purchases for Russian pipeline gas but rather through increased Russian LNG exports into China, which would free up US LNG to Europe.
Analysts noted that speculative bets increased on lower TTF price, with investment funds holding a short net position of 11,4 terawatt hours (TWh), a level last seen in March 20,24.
Analysts at ING Research wrote in a report that "this large short position leaves a fairly high level of positioning risk if there are any surprises regarding supply or demand during the winter."
Gas Infrastructure Europe's data shows that European gas storages are only 77.62% filled, down from around 88% one year ago. They also fall short of the 90% target for November 1.
The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was down by 0.46 euros at 81.22 euro per metric ton. (Reporting from Nora Buli, Oslo; Editing done by Alexander Smith.)
(source: Reuters)
