EUROPE GAS - European prices are rising due to Middle East energy war fears
Dutch and British Gas Contracts rose on Monday morning and are likely to face another volatile trading session, as the Middle East war risks escalating strikes against energy infrastructure. The reopening of Strait of Hormuz is still a long way off.
Data from Intercontinental Exchange showed that the benchmark Dutch front-month contracts?at TTF hub were up?3.01 euros at 62.35 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), by 0901 GMT.
The British contract was up by 6.3 pence to 157.40 per therm.
Analysts at Mind Energy stated in a daily report that the uptrend on the gas market continued Monday morning despite the U.S. threat against Iran and new Israeli strikes, as well as growing concerns about the long-term effects on global supply.
President Donald Trump of the United States threatened on Saturday to "obliterate", Iran's nuclear power plants, if they did not reopen fully the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours. Iran, in turn, warned that it could destroy vital infrastructure and energy installations in the Middle East.
QatarEnergy CEO stated that a strike at Qatar's Ras-?Laffan complex damaged two LNG trains. This has caused?17% to Qatar's capacity for LNG? for up to five years.
Daniel Hynes is a senior commodity strategist with ANZ. He said, "The year-ahead contracts have increased substantially more than benchmark front month futures."
Analysts from Rabobank have raised their TTF forecast to 50 euros/MWh in 2026, and 42 euros/MWh in 2027. This is due to a longer closure of the Strait and a curtailment for a number of years of Qatari LNG flow following strikes at its Ras Laffan Terminal.
According to ICE data, all monthly TTF contracts through February 2027 currently trade above 60?euros/MWh. This is double the level before the beginning of the war in February.
Rabobank stated that "we?also see the risk of further attacks in the Gulf causing lasting supply curtailments and posing a significant price risk for?our crude oil and natural gas views".
They forecast that the LNG supply for this year will be around 443 million tonnes, as U.S. additions cannot offset?outages in the Middle East and Northern?Africa.
Gas Infrastructure Europe's data shows that EU gas storage facilities were last 28.5% full compared to 33.8% last year.
The benchmark carbon contract in Europe was down by 1.60 euros at 66.06 euro per metric ton. (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman; Nora Buli)
(source: Reuters)
