EUROPE GAS - European prices are mixed due to divergent weather forecasts
Dutch and British electricity prices were mixed Monday morning, reflecting forecasts for a quicker return to cooler temperatures that will increase gas demand. However, the weather is still expected to be warmer than normal and windy in the coming days.
LSEG data shows that the benchmark Dutch front-month contract was up 0.03 euros at 31.21 Euro per megawatt hour at TTF hub, or $10.58/mmBtu at 0924 GMT.
The Dutch day-ahead contracts was up by 0.03 euros at 31.08 Euro/MWh.
The British day-ahead price of gas was down 3.05 pence, at 73.20 pence p/therm. The within-day contract dropped 3.68 pence, to 72.50 pence p/therm. Meanwhile the front-month contract rose 0.02 pence and was at 81.20 pence p/therm.
Over the weekend we have noticed a change in the weather forecasts. In a morning report, Ulrich Weber, LSEG's analyst, said that the length of this milder period had been significantly reduced.
He added that temperatures will fall to normal levels by Friday, which is several days earlier than originally anticipated.
Weber stated that the wind power generation continues to rise, but the forecast for the coming days is higher than expected.
Elexon data shows that the peak wind generation in Britain is expected to increase from 13,2 gigawatts on Monday, to 16 GW by Tuesday.
National Gas reported that the British gas system had a surplus of 25.7 million cubic meters (mcm), per day, on Monday.
Gas Infrastructure Europe's data shows that EU gas storage sites are currently 82.61% full compared to 93.76% last year. The storage gap has narrowed by one percentage point in the last week due to the milder weather, the data revealed.
An analyst stated that the gap could shrink to 10 percent points by this weekend, reducing the risk of winter storage.
Karsten Sander-Nielsen, senior analyst at Mind Energy, said that fresh Russian attacks against energy infrastructure in Ukraine have increased concerns about the Ukrainians becoming more dependent on European Gas over the winter.
The benchmark carbon contract in Europe was 0.40 euros higher at 79.87 euro per metric ton. Reporting by Nora Buli, Oslo; Editing Shailesh Kumar)
(source: Reuters)
