Fitch warns that energy support measures may have a negative impact on France and Britain's finances.
Fitch Ratings will be watching to see if European governments are going to need to?roll out support measures to combat higher energy prices. This could increase fiscal pressures on countries like France and Britain, said a senior analyst. This week, oil and gas prices have risen as the war in the Middle East has stoked concerns among policymakers and on financial markets about inflation. Inflation, which soared after Russia invaded Ukraine, could rise again. They will decide whether to provide assistance based on the length of the war and if energy prices continue to rise.
Gas prices in Europe fall on forecasts of warmer temperatures
The benchmark British and Dutch wholesale gasoline prices fell on Tuesday morning as warmer temperatures forecasts reduced gas demand. LSEG data show that the benchmark Dutch 'front-month contract' at?the TTF Hub was down 0.46 euros to 30.30 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh), or $10.54 /mmBtu by 0908 GMT. The Dutch April rate was lower by 0.43 euros at 29.50?euros/MWh. The British day-ahead contracts was down 0.75 pence to 73.00?p/therm. The weather forecasts for Central and Western Europe have become a bit milder and more windy over the weekend.
French spots are feeling the effects of a warmer, windier climate
The French spot electricity contract fell on Monday, as a stronger wind output and milder temperature weighed on the?demand. LSEG data shows that the French day-ahead power contract at 1102 GMT was 57.55?euros (68.27 dollars) per megawatt at 1102 GMT. This is a 17% decrease from the price paid on Friday for Monday's delivery. LSEG data revealed that the equivalent German contract was not traded. LSEG data shows that German day-ahead prices have been missing in recent sessions. LSEG data showed that the German wind output was expected to 'rise' by 5 gigawatts to 18.1 GW on Monday, while French wind?generation would rise by 3.6 GW from 10.7 GW.
Storm Goretti increases spot electricity prices in Western Europe
The intraday price of power across Western European markets increased on Friday, as Storm Goretti caused power outages and problems with power generation equipment. EPEX spot data revealed that the average "baseload" price for Germany was 90.44 euro ($105.31), while France's price was 87.35 euro/MWh at 1207 GMT. LSEG data showed that this is higher than the closing spot price on Thursday of 74.75 euro/MWh or 67.75 euro respectively. Sabrina Kernbichler, an Energy Aspects analyst, says that power demand in Germany was higher than expected on Friday due to Storm Goretti, and this has pushed up the intraday price.
German prices are still high, but they have fallen in France.
The cold weather boosted the prices of France's power contracts, which are based on prompt delivery, in wholesale trading Tuesday. Germany's prices, however, fell, but remained nearly twice as high as their French equivalents. In recent days, low temperatures and a decline in wind power have increased electricity prices and caused them to be volatile. This is due to the weather-driven fluctuations in renewable output. Naser Hashemi, LSEG analyst, said: "Market conditions are tight due to the high consumption in Central Western Europe (CWE) and low wind generation.
INSIGHT- West scrambles fill the heavy rare earth gap, as China rivalry intensifies
Western efforts to create a domestic magnets supply chain in order to reduce their reliance on China, led by the massive U.S. support for Nevada-based MP Materials, are running into a major problem: a scarcity of heavy rare earth elements. United States and its allies are scrambling to find an alternative supply chain for super-strong rare earth magnetic components, which are essential in everything from electric vehicles and defence technology to electronics and windmills. MP Materials has ambitious plans for producing magnets in the next few years. This is backed by a deal signed with the U.S. Government that included billions of dollars.
The US wants Europe to continue using oil and gas instead of renewable energies
The world's investments in renewable energies aren't paying off and should be focused on securing a reliable supply of fossil fuels. This was the message from U.S. Energy and Interior Secretaries this week, as they tried to convince Europe to purchase more U.S. gas and oil. On the back of U.S. shale gas boom, the U.S. is now Europe's largest oil and natural gas supplier. Its companies are trying to increase their share at a time when the European Union is attempting to cut off all remaining Russian energy imports. The message of U.S. officials during an energy conference held in Athens, Greece this week highlighted the shift in U.S.
Greece signs long-term LNG supply agreement with US
Greece signed a 20-year deal to import 0.7 bcm of liquefied gas each year, starting in 2030. This is its first long term gas supply agreement with the United States. The deal aims to replace Russian gas shipments into Europe. The 20-year agreement comes just months after Trump's administration and the European Union inked a trade agreement in July. Europe pledged to purchase $250 billion of U.S. oil, LNG, and nuclear technology annually over the next three-year period as it sought to phase out Russian natural gas by 2027. Venture Global, a U.S. company, and Greece's largest gas utility DEPA have agreed to supply the product.
Gas prices in Europe are falling due to a strong supply and mild weather.
The wholesale gas prices in the UK and Netherlands fell on Friday morning, as a result of a strong supply and unseasonably warm temperatures forecast. LSEG data shows that the benchmark Dutch front-month contract was lower by 0.21 euros, or 10.64 cents per megawatt hour at TTF hub, at 0920 GMT. The Dutch day-ahead rate was lower by 0.35 euros, at 31.42 Euros/MWh. The British front-month contracts lost 0.15 pence, to 82.02p/therm. LSEG analysts predicted that the total LNG export in Northwest Europe would be 2,676 gigawatt-hours/day by Friday. This is an increase of 100 GWh over previous estimates.
The European Court of Human Rights rejects the climate case against Norway Oil
The European Court of Human Rights ruled on Tuesday in favor of the Norwegian Government in a case brought by young activists for climate change who claimed that the country's Arctic oil exploration policy had put their future in danger. Norway, the largest oil and natural gas producer in western Europe, produces four million barrels equivalent of oil per day. It plans to continue producing hydrocarbons into the future, while supporting efforts worldwide to reduce carbon dioxide emission. The 2022 lawsuit, filed by six young people in…
The US and India are the new drivers of copper demand as China's juggernaut slows.
Over the next decade, copper consumption in India and the United States will overtake China as the demand for the metal in China slows. Beijing's expansion of industrial and infrastructure has fueled a rally which has seen copper prices soar to over $10,000 per metric ton, from $1500 25 years earlier. Analysts expect that other factors, such as demand and prices, will increasingly influence copper's price. Producers, consumers, traders, and investors will need to adapt to the market's many drivers. "China will reduce the rate of its copper consumption and stockpiling." "We are returning to the old-fashioned drivers for copper…
Slovakia pushes back on pressure over Russia energy purchases
Slovakia, on Wednesday, resisted pressure to reduce its purchases of Russian gas, saying that it was willing to discuss the matter, but pointed out certain European states who increased their purchases. Both Slovakia and Hungary, both EU member states, are led by populists who have maintained political ties with Russia. Russia supplies most of their oil requirements, and they have argued it would be costly to stop using Russian supplies once their infrastructure has been built around them. They have come under more pressure in the past couple of weeks after U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he wants to see the EU completely stop its Russian energy purchases.
German spot prices are affected by the increase in wind power supply
The German spot electricity contract on Friday dropped sharply Thursday. Strong gains in wind energy output are expected to continue until next Monday. By 0802 GMT, the German baseload contract for day-ahead was down by 20.5% to 60 euros ($70.14). The French equivalent contract increased 52.4%, to 16 euros/MWh. Analysts at Engie Energy Scan said that location spreads in Western Europe are increasing, although not equally. The German price is higher than the Netherlands and Belgium, while the French price continues to be at a significant discounted rate. LSEG data revealed that German wind power production was expected to increase by 5 gigawatts, to 26 GW.
UN urges Australia and Turkey to resolve host dispute for COP31
On Monday, the UN climate chief urged Australia to settle its long-running dispute with Turkey over hosting next year's COP31 Summit. He called the delay unhelpful. Both Australia and Turkey have submitted bids for the highly-publicized conference in 2022, but neither has conceded to the other since. Simon Stiell said that the deadlock undermined preparations. He is the executive secretary of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change which oversees COP Summits. He said that a decision must be taken very quickly at an event of the Smart Energy Council in Sydney. The two proponents must come together, both within and outside the group.
Equinor and partners approve $1.3 Billion Johan Sverdrup Oilfield Expansion
Equinor, a Norwegian oil company, and its partners approved an investment of 13 billion Norwegian crowns ($1.29 billion), for the expansion at Johan Sverdrup. This is the largest oilfield in western Europe. Equinor's partner Aker BP and Equinor said separately that the project will increase recoverable volume from the field between 40 and 50 millions barrels of oil-equivalent. They added that production from new subsea oil wells connected to existing infrastructure should begin in the fourth-quarter of 2027. Every third barrel of crude oil produced on the Norwegian continental shelf is now from the fields.
Heatwave increases demand for spot prices
The German and French power prices rose on Tuesday as the heatwave in many parts of Europe increased cooling demand. LSEG data show that French baseload electricity for Tuesday increased by 132%, to 109 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh), by 815 GMT. The German contract, which was equivalent to the German contract, increased by 126% and reached 117.5 Euros/MWh. The authorities of several European countries, including Britain, have issued extreme health and heat warnings after temperatures in some countries soared to over 30 degrees Celsius. The use of cooling systems is increasing, and so is the demand for electricity.
Spot prices drop on rising renewable supply
The French spot electricity price for Thursday dropped on Wednesday, as the renewable energy supply was expected to increase and demand to fall in most countries of central Western Europe. French baseload electricity for Thursday fell 10.6% to 81.35 Euros ($89.66 per megawatt-hour (MWh) at 0836 GMT. The French equivalent contract was 36.5% cheaper at 26.25 Euros/MWh. In Germany, residual load is expected decrease on Thursday due to an increase in renewable supply. Riccardo Paraviero, LSEG analyst, said that the trend was the same for the rest, except Belgium.
Prices of gas in Europe are lower than the first session for a second session. Ukraine Peace prospects dominate
The wholesale gas price in the Netherlands and Britain continued to fall on Thursday, after reaching a two-year peak on Tuesday. Market participants were watching for any further developments regarding the efforts of U.S. president Donald Trump to bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine. LSEG data shows that the benchmark front-month contract for the Dutch TTF Hub was lower by 2.85 euros, or $16.21/mmBtu at 1003 GMT. The contract was well below the intra-day peak of 59.27 euro/MWh, reached on Tuesday. This is its highest level since Febuary 2023. The Dutch April contract is down by 2.99 Euros at 52.93 euro/MWh.
Hungary wants Ukraine to resume gas transit as EU sanctions are about to roll over
Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary, said that the European Union should persuade Ukraine so it can resume the transit of gas from Russia into Europe. This is a controversial issue as the EU tries to extend sanctions against Russia in the next week. Hungary has yet to decide whether it will support the rollover of sanctions due at the end this month. The EU must renew sanctions every six-months and require unanimity from its 27 members to do so. Orban, who has a government that maintains closer economic and politic relations with Moscow than any other EU country…
Hungary will increase its gas exports to Slovakia starting April
The transmission system operator FGSZ announced on Tuesday that Hungary would increase its gas export to Slovakia from 2.63 billion cubic metres per year to 3.5 bcm by April. Hungary's decision to increase its export capacity to the north follows Ukraine refusing to renew a transit agreement with Russia, as it seeks a reduction in revenue that goes to Moscow for funding the war in Ukraine. The expiration of this deal has stopped a major route for Russian Gas to be shipped into Slovakia and Western Europe. Robert Fico, the Slovak prime minister, has threatened to take retaliatory actions against Kyiv.