Goldman projects oil prices to decline and sees gold at $4900 by December 2026. Copper remains the preferred industrial metal.
Goldman Sachs believes that gold prices will rise 14% by December 2026 to $4,900 an ounce in its base scenario. However, the firm warned of upside risks due to potential diversification with private investors. Goldman Sachs stated that it expected cyclical support and structurally high demand from central banks to boost the price of gold in a note where they discussed their views on commodities. Goldman Sachs continues to advise long exposure in yellow metal. At 1824 GMT, spot gold was priced at $4334.93 an ounce. The bank forecasted that copper prices would also consolidate by 2026, averaging $11,400 per ton.
Glencore reduces Century Aluminum stake from 33% to 33% following tariff-driven rally
Glencore cut its stake in Century Aluminum from 10% to 33%. This has resulted in millions of dollars in profit following the share price rally that was sparked by U.S. Tariffs on Aluminium Imports. On June 4, U.S. president Donald Trump increased the tariffs on aluminum imports from 25% to 50% in order to encourage investment in the production of this metal in the United States. The largest shareholder in Century is Glencore, a London-listed company. It provides Century with alumina as a feedstock to aluminium while purchasing nearly all its North American aluminum production for U.S. clients.
Copper prices continue to fall due to stronger dollar and demand concerns
The dollar strengthened on Tuesday and concerns about demand grew after the record high set last week. As of 1700 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange had fallen 1.6% to $10,674 per kilogram. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that the pullback was a sign that the current fundamentals were not strong enough to support higher prices. The reversal also forced those who had been wrong-footed to give up. There is no immediate need for metal. Dollar prices were also affected by its recent three-month high.
Copper Notches Record High as Supply Shortages Take a Toll
The copper price hit a record of $11,146 per ton on Tuesday, as a result of a shortage in mine supplies. This was after several weeks at high levels. The London Metal Exchange's three-month copper was up 0.5% to $11,095 by 1035 GMT. It had earlier risen 1%, surpassing the previous record of $11,104.50 in May 2024. Glencore, the world's largest copper miner, reduced its guidance for annual production to between 850,000-875,000 metric tonnes, down from 850,000-890,000 metric tons earlier, further escalating concerns about mine supply. "I think that is the final straw," said Nitesh Sha, commodity strategist at WisdomTree.
Andy Home highlights the impact of mine supply strikes: ROI-Copper Study Group
Copper mine supply disruptions are nothing new, but the current year has been particularly difficult for a sector racing to meet smelter demands. According to the International Copper Study Group, the impact of unexpected production losses will be felt next year in full force. The Group's latest statistical update said that tightness in the mined concentrats segment will have a significant impact on the growth of refined copper production in 2026. Even though the demand growth is expected to slow down next year, it's projected that metal production will fall short by 150 metric tons.
Andy Home highlights the impact of mine supply strikes: ROI-Copper Study Group
Copper mine supply disruptions are nothing new, but the current year has been particularly difficult for a sector racing to meet smelter demands. According to the International Copper Study Group, several of the largest copper mines in the world have suffered unexpected production losses. The cumulative impact is expected to be felt next year. The Group's latest statistical update stated that the tightness of the market in the segment of mined concentrates will have a significant impact on the growth rate in refined copper production in 2026.
Andy Home: Zinc ROI-LME turns wild when bears sleep-walk and squeeze into the squeeze:
London Metal Exchange's zinc contract is on a wild ride this week, with time-spreads reaching record levels in the face of depleted stock. Since several months the zinc market has been sleeping-walking to this storm, believing that falling LME inventories were not a true representation of a growing market surplus. Metal has been leaking out of LME's warehouses. There are only 35,300 tons left, which is barely enough for a day's global consumption. The arrivals have been very low despite the increasing premium for cash deliveries. It's a painful squeeze for the bears who misjudged zinc's changing dynamics.
Aurubis raises premium for 2026 European Copper to a record $315 per ton
Three market sources reported on Tuesday that Europe's largest copper smelter Aurubis would charge European customers an additional $315 per ton of refined copper in the coming year. This is a record-high for the German company. The premium is added to the London Metal Exchange copper price, which is used in construction and power. It is 38% higher than the $228 per ton paid in 2025 or the two previous years. Aurubis has declined to comment. The record premium is due to fears that there will be a shortage of copper in the coming year, which pushed LME Copper prices to a 16 month high of $10,000 a ton.
Copper reaches 16-month peak as it moves towards its strongest week since April
Copper prices rose to a 16-month peak on Friday as supply restrictions and a weaker dollar drove up the price. In official open-outcry trading, three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7% to $10,565 per kilogram. It is on track for a gain of 4,1% on a weekly basis, marking its best week since April 7. It had previously reached $10,599.50 - the highest level since May 29, 2024. "The focus of the market is on the supply-side - the risks to supply, and the possible delay in getting back supply. This is helping to drive the momentum," Ole Hansen said, head of commodity strategies at Saxo Bank.
Dollar softens as concerns about supply persist. Copper prices rise.
The copper price rose slightly on Wednesday due to the ongoing disruption in mine supply, and a weaker dollar. As of 0930 GMT, the London Metal Exchange reported that three-month copper was up 0.3% to $10,294.50 a ton. The markets in China, the world's largest metals consumer, are closed between October 1 and 8 for National Day. The brokerage said that Freeport-McMoRan's announcement of force majeure at its Graberg Mine in Indonesia last week acted as a catalyst to move away from rangebound prices. However, any significant price increase may be limited by the key resistance level, which is $10,500 per ton.
Andy Home: Depleted LME Zinc Stocks may Need a Chinese Booster
The market for zinc has only just realized that the London Metal Exchange's inventory is so low it could cover less than one day of global consumption. The LME spreads have become volatile, and the cash premium on the three-month price has increased. Last week, the price of a metric ton reached $60. This was a level that had not been exceeded since 2022. All signs point to a market in severe supply deficit. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group, however, estimates that there was a global surplus in the first seven month of this year of 72,000 tonnes. The bad news is that it appears the excess metal on the LME market is in China.
Andy Home: Grasberg disaster shows fragility in copper supply chain
Copper markets are used to sudden supply disruptions, but the events that occurred at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg Mine in Indonesia were unprecedented in their scale and impact. Grasberg, after Escondida mine in Chile, is the second largest copper mine in the world. The 815,000 tons of copper produced last year represented 4% of the global output. The events that took place in Block Cave on the evening of September 8 were the stuff of nightmares. A massive 800,000-ton rush of mud erupted in the mine and spread rapidly, blocking all access routes. Two workers died.
Copper reaches 15-month high as China's smelting restrictions add to supply concerns
Copper prices reached a new 15-month-high on Thursday. This was a continuation of recent gains, as fears about supply were heightened by proposed controls on China's smelting capacities after Freeport McMoran Inc. slashed their mine production forecast for Indonesia. The benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange increased 0.9%, to $10431.50 per metric ton as of 0939 GMT. The metal used for power and construction reached a record high in May 2024 of $11,104.50 per ton. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association…
Freeport expects lower copper and gold sales after declaring force majeure in Grasberg
Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on Wednesday at its Grasberg Mine in Indonesia. It also said that it expects consolidated sales for copper and gold to be lower in the third quarter. This sent its shares down by 10%. Earlier this week, the company temporarily halted its mining operations at Grasberg, after a large amount of wet materials blocked access to certain parts of underground mine and restricted evacuation routes for seven employees. Two team members were killed in the incident. The company announced that operations at Grasberg - one of the largest gold and cobalt mines in the world - would not resume before the first half 2026.
Freeport suspends Indonesian Grasberg mine operations following underground incident
Freeport-McMoRan announced on Tuesday that it temporarily halted the mining of Indonesia's Grasberg Mine after a large amount of wet materials blocked access to certain parts of its underground. This restricted evacuation routes for seven employees. The company reported that the incident happened late Monday night at one of the five production blocks within the Grasberg Block Cave Underground Mine in Central Papua. Freeport stated that the location of the seven employees is known, and they believe that they are safe. Rescue crews are clearing the area to allow for a quick and safe evacuation.
Andy Home: Zinc market ignores low LME stock as a false signal
Zinc stocks at the London Metal Exchange (LME), have fallen for seven consecutive months. The remaining zinc stocks would only cover one day of global consumption. No one has told the market that zinc is in real danger of being scarce. Zinc underperformed all the other base metals on the LME this year, and it is the only one that still trades below its start-of-year price by 4%. Time-spreads are tightening but remain at a small contango. This suggests that the LME's near-depletion of inventory isn't a true reflection of the real world. This wouldn't mark the first time that LME zinc stock has been manipulated to fool the unwary.
Aluminum producers in the US benefit from Trump's tariffs
Four industry sources say that President Donald Trump will benefit from the higher tariffs on imported metals as domestic prices rise. Some industry players worry that Trump's decision to increase tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4, could cause prices to soar that the demand begins to weaken. The market price of the metal key used in the construction, energy and packaging industries is expected to increase revenues for U.S. aluminum producers and recyclers. Customers are charged the London Metal Exchange price for aluminium plus a physical premium to cover additional costs, such as freight and taxes.
Bloomberg reports that Mercuria is betting big on aluminum in a peace agreement with Russia.
Bloomberg News reported Thursday that Mercuria Energy Group had built up a large aluminum position at the London Metal Exchange. The company was betting on a tightening of the market if sanctions were eased against Moscow. Bloomberg reported that Mercuria has contracts for more than 1 million tons aluminum, which is several times what's currently available on the LME. This, Bloomberg noted, had helped to drive a rapid tightening of the market in recent days. According to the report, sources who asked for anonymity in order to discuss confidential information, have been in touch with Mercuria regarding its aluminum position.
Congo considers export quotas for cobalt to boost prices amid glut
Three sources with knowledge of the situation said that the Democratic Republic of Congo was considering cobalt export quotas in order to reduce oversupply of the metal and increase prices. The cobalt price is at a historically low level due to a slackening in demand by automakers. Mines are also ramping up their production of copper from which the cobalt can be extracted as a side-product. Sources who declined to name themselves and discuss sensitive issues said that the Congolese Government has discussed the plan of introducing limits, but no final decision had been made.
CME copper reaches two-month highs; focus on US tariffs
The COMEX copper prices rose to two-month-highs on Thursday, as the market tried to discount the possibility of hefty tariffs being imposed on U.S. imported goods after Donald Trump becomes president-elect in the United States later this month. The industrial metal prices on COMEX (part of CME Group) hit $4.285, or $9.446.82 per metric ton. This is the highest price since November 11, when Trump won the U.S. elections and floated import duties. The contract last rose 1.0% to $4.2795. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) copper contract has a premium of around $400 per ton, up from near zero in 2025.