EIA: US crude production will reach record 13,41 million bpd by 2025, before dropping.

The Energy Information Administration predicted in its monthly report on Tuesday that the U.S. crude oil production would reach a record 13,41 million barrels a day in 2025, despite lower oil prices causing a decline in 2026. EIA data show that the drop in production in 2026 to 13,28 million barrels per day would be the world's first decline since 2021. The EIA forecasted that the Brent benchmark price would average $51 a barrel in 2019. This is down from the previous forecast of $58 a barrel. After the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its members decided on accelerating the pace of production increase, the EIA has revised their estimate. Low oil prices early in 2026 will result in a reduction of supply from both OPEC+ producers and some non-OPEC ones, which will we anticipate help moderate the inventory build later in 2026," said EIA. The EIA projected that the U.S. crude production would be 13.37 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. In 2024, the United States produced 13,21 million bpd. This year, U.S. producers have been navigating President Donald Trump's tariffs, which have sparked uncertainty in the economy, as well as rising supply quotas by OPEC+ and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The EIA stated that lower crude prices will push down retail petroleum prices. It added that it expects the average retail gasoline price in the U.S. next year to be less than $2.90 a gallon, which is about 20 cents a gallon less than the current year. The EIA predicted that U.S. fuel distillate inventories would end 2025 with the lowest level of all time, following a 14% decrease over the course the year, due to an increase in exports and increased demand. The agency said that lower refinery capacity in the United States and continued export demand would keep inventories low, while distillate stocks will remain relatively flat in 2026. The EIA stated that the U.S. demand for oil will rise to 20.4 millions bpd by 2025. This is in line with earlier forecasts. The oil demand in 2026 will increase to 20.5 millions bpd compared to a previous estimate.

(source: Reuters)