China's coal production in 2026 is expected to grow at the slowest pace this decade, despite lower imports

A major coal industry group announced?on? Tuesday that China's coal production is expected to increase by 35 million metric tones to 4.86 billion tons in 2026. This would be the slowest rate this decade, despite?projections? of a second consecutive drop in annual imports as a result of Indonesia, its top supplier, ceasing spot exports.

China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association said that production by the world's largest producer, consumer and imported of coal will rise 0.7% in this year while imports will fall 5.1% to 465 millions tons.

The CCTD stated that "news of Indonesia's reduction of production quotas, and the reinstatement export tariffs have?created expectation of a significant decline in Indonesian coal imported."

Indonesian miners have stopped exporting spot coal after the government proposed a deep production cut?to stabilize?falling prices. China will use up its stocks this year, as consumption growth will outpace supply growth.

"If imports of coal are reduced more significantly, the domestic production will still be able to increase."

China's coal fired power generation dropped in 2025, for the first time in a decade. The growing renewable fleet of China helped meet an 5% rise in electricity demand to a "record high". Analysts say that while proposals to build coal-fired plants are on the rise, China is still on course for a peak of emissions by 2030.

Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, said that coal plants were'shifting from primary energy suppliers to flexibility providers.' It added that parts of the fleet are moving to a?reserve-status.

The statement stated that coal-fired electricity utilisation rates have decreased from 60% in 2011, to 48.2% by 2025. It also said that the consultancy anticipates a decline of 32% to 2035. (Reporting and editing by Anil D’Silva; Sudarshan Varadhan)

(source: Reuters)