Chile's Cochilco raises copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to record highs

The state copper commission of Chile, Cochilco, increased its forecasts for copper prices in 2025 and 2026 on Wednesday to new highs amid weak production.

Cochilco has raised its forecast for 2026 to $4.55 a pound from $4.30 a pound.

Victor Garay is Cochilco’s mining market coordinator. He said that the forecasts were the highest estimates of copper prices ever made by the Copper Commission. The commission also believes the metal will continue to rise in price at least until 2030, as the supply continues to lag behind the demand.

He pointed out also that the risks associated with the metal, such as changes in demand or tariff adjustments, are still present.

Copper prices were expected to rise due to the production restrictions in Chile, which is the largest producer of the red metal.

Cochilco attributed the lower supply to a number of factors, including a poor performance at the giant Collahuasi mining complex, a partnership with Anglo American, Glencore and lower production at Anglo American Sur, as well as an accident at Codelco’s flagship mine El Teniente.

Cochilco estimates that Chilean copper production will grow by just 0.1% this year to 5.51 millions metric tonnes, and then 2.5% in 2026 to reach 5.6 million tons.

Garay stated that other operations will compensate the El Teniente production decline going forward and the country should be able to reach 5,9 million metric tonnes in 2027.

According to Cochilco, the demand for copper is expected to continue growing, but with less dynamism. (Reporting and editing by Brendan O'Boyle, Bill Berkrot and Fabian Andres Cambero)

(source: Reuters)