Brokers say that the global supply of sugar will keep prices in check.

Broker StoneX stated on Tuesday that the expected increases in sugar production by key growers would keep prices under pressure over the coming months and reduce profit margins for millers.

StoneX projected that the global sugar supply balance would shift from a negative 2.8 million metric tonnes in October 2024-September 2025, to a positive 3.7 million tons by 2025/26. This is a higher estimate of surplus than that projected by commodities traders

Louis Dreyfus

Monday is a holiday.

The market structure has changed. "We had a lot of windows last year to price sugar for mills, but it's changing now." Bruno Lima said that he didn't believe there would be many opportunities for mills to price sugar this year. He made the statement during the presentation on the second day at the New York Sugar Week.

StoneX reported that Brazil, which is the world's biggest sugar exporter and producer, will still be able produce more sugar during the next season, despite the lower availability of sugarcane, because mills have increased their capacity to make sugar.

Brazil's sugar production in the center-south region of Brazil was estimated to be 41.8 million metric tonnes, up from 40.2 million tons for 2024/25. Sugarcane production is expected to fall from 621.9 millions tons to 608.5.

India, the No. The projected increase in production of sugar by India, the world's No. Thailand's crop for 2025/26 was estimated at 11.7 millions tons, an increase of 1.4 million tonnes from the previous season.

Rodrigo Martini, StoneX's head of sugar and bioethanol, stated that the commercial short position on raw sugar futures is at its lowest level in five years. Sugar producers should be encouraged to sell at any price spike. This will keep the market under control. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski, David Gregorio, and Marcelo Teixeira)

(source: Reuters)