Broker: Brazil's sugarcane production will increase, ethanol production will improve

StoneX, a broker and research firm, said that Brazil's center-south region will produce the second largest cane crop on record in the 2026/27 harvest, which began in April, at 632.2 millions metric tons.

StoneX, in a conference held during New York Sugar Week in New York, said that the estimate was higher than a previous forecast in March (620,5 million tons), and also up from 621.9 millions tons of sugar processed in 2025/26. The favorable weather conditions were cited as causing this increase.

StoneX data suggests that the extra cane is likely to be used for a higher ethanol production.

Brokers predicted that Brazil's center south (CS) total production of ethanol (including corn-ethanol) would reach 38 billion liters during the new season. This is 800 million more liters than what was seen in March, and 4.3 billion more liters than the previous season. The conflict in the Middle East has led to higher?energy costs in Brazil, which are driving mills to increase ethanol production. Sugar mills will use 47.9% of the cane crop, down from 50% in the previous season.

StoneX estimated?CS sugar output at?40 millions tons, the same as March but 400,000 tonnes less than 2025/26.

(source: Reuters)