Brent Oil Remains On Track for 8% Weekly Decline as Israel, Hezbollah Agree to Ceasefire

Brent crude ticked slightly higher on Friday but was still on track for a more than 8% weekly decline after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased.

Brent crude futures were up 20 cents, or 0.25%, at $80.05 a barrel by 10:55 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 25 cents, or 0.33%, at $76.85 per barrel.

Trading volumes were light due to a U.S. federal holiday.

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz picked up on Friday after the signing of the deal, with Gulf producers preparing to raise exports despite concerns over conditions set by Tehran for using the vital waterway.

At least four tankers carrying crude, oil products and liquefied petroleum gas entered the strait on Friday, heading for Iraqi Gulf ports, according to MarineTraffic data.

"Though (oil prices) haven't got to the point to where they were before the war started, it looks like we're headed in that direction," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, adding more supply is expected to flow through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days.

"The backlog of ships can move quicker than some people think and if there's cooperation between Iran and the U.S., it can move quite quickly."

Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire which began at 4 p.m. local time (1300 GMT) on Friday, a senior U.S. official told Reuters.

"We understand that after the exchange of fire earlier today, Israel and Hezbollah are now in a ceasefire," the official said.

A planned meeting between Iranian and U.S. officials in Switzerland on Friday has been postponed, with arrangements underway for talks in the coming days, Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Friday.

The ministry said the meeting was no longer urgent because a memorandum of understanding on ending the war had already been signed digitally between the two sides.

Analysts expect the deal to release more than 85 million barrels of oil stranded in the Middle East Gulf into global markets. The agreement also includes the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, which would add more supply.

Around 20% of global oil and LNG supply transits Hormuz, but recovery in flows and production after the U.S.-Iran deal could take several months.

Citi said its base case, with a 60% probability, sees sustained normalisation in flows, with oil markets moving into surplus and prices trending lower over the next six to 12 months to around $60 to $65 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027.

Commerzbank said oil supply should gradually recover, lowering its Brent forecast to $80 a barrel by year-end from $85, while expecting prices to remain above pre-war levels for most of the coming year.

Iraq's oilfields are ready to resume production and output will gradually return to normal, restoring previous rates, Oil Minister Basim Mohammed said.

On the demand front, world demand will rise to 113.3 million bpd in 2030 from 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025, OPEC said in its 2026 World Oil Outlook.

(Reuters)